The NBA regular season is back in action with a solid 4-game slate this Monday. So, I've locked in picks for three of today's contests, including bets for Rockets vs. Pacers, Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies, and 76ers vs. Clippers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, February 2.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Monday, February 2
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Rockets vs. Pacers
I am unable to get anywhere close to this number in my power ratings, which admittedly are lower on the Rockets than consensus.
However, given that the Rockets are under .500 on the season ATS and 11-12 ATS as a road favorite, I’m willing to go against them.
The Pacers have won and covered three of their last four, they’re playing some good basketball.
The Pacers are also the 8th-best defensive rebounding team in the league, which takes away a big Rockets' advantage.
Steven Adams was lost to a season-ending ankle injury last week. The Rockets are 5-8 ATS as a favorite without Adams this season.
I project this line with the Pacers as slight favorites, which is probably going too far.
But Indiana is 13-7 as a home 'dog this season. I think the Pacers hang within the number, and might win outright.
Pick: Pacers +6.5 (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies
Minnesota plays the Grizzlies in the second game of a “duplex” spot in back-to-back games after beating the brakes off them on Saturday.
The key here is that the Wolves are basically a wagon that sometimes drives itself into the bushes for no reason, but not enough for it to be a trend to bet against.
Sometimes, teams’ win profiles say that you should fade them against bad teams. But Minnesota has been great vs. bad teams.
The Wolves are top-15 in offensive and defense eFG%, offensive rebound rate, and turnover rate. They are 21st in opponent free throw rate… but the Grizzlies are bottom-10 in drawing fouls.
The Wolves generate and make a lot of threes. Memphis doesn’t take many and makes fewer.
This is more than good team vs. bad team, though. Memphis is undersized without Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, the Wolves are huge.
The Grizzlies have a math problem with their three-point profile. Minnesota is hyper optimized.
I make this spread Wolves -11, with Memphis being the 28th-ranked ATS at home and 9-15 with a -0.3 spread differential.
Memphis is one of the faster teams in the league, but they only cover vs. faster teams. Memphis is 4-3 ATS against faster teams, and 11-23 ATS against slower teams. Minnesota is slower.
Some more trends:
- Memphis is 5-6 this season against teams they lost the previous matchup to.
- Memphis is 3-14 SU against teams top-10 in point differential this season per CleaningTheGlass.com, with a -2.7 spread differential.
- The Wolves are +2.1 in ATS differential against bottom-10 point differential teams.
Pick: Timberwolves -7.5 (-110)
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76ers vs. Clippers
Not a full play on this one, as the Clippers basically being the second-best team in basketball over the last month (behind the Hornets), has me spooked. They are 10-1 ATS with a +9 spread differential since their home win over the Lakers on December 20.
But still, I can’t get to this number. The Clippers are very likely to rest players on the back-to-back, which is why the number is so low.
The Clippers got a feel-good win vs. the Suns on Sunday night.
After playing the Suns this season, teams are 18-30 (37.5%) ATS. Phoenix’s play-hard style makes for games where they take something out of you.
If you want a larger sample trend? Teams on a back-to-back as home favorites after winning by more than 20 are 107-123-3 ATS (37.5%) and 8-14 the last two seasons.
Philly has the size to beat the Clippers on the interior and the kind of scoring punch with their guards to break containment.
Throw in the injuries, and I’ll take Philly here.
The Sixers are 7-3 playing against teams on a back-to-back this season.
It’s trying to catch a falling knife with how great the Clippers have been, but I can’t ignore the spot and the number.
Pick: 76ers +2 (-110)
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