Bucks vs Timberwolves Pick, Prediction Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Timberwolves on Friday, Feb. 23 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves get their second halves started on Friday in Minnesota with the Bucks looking to find a way back to the championship-caliber basketball they were playing months ago.

With how well the Timberwolves have played on both sides of the ball this month, might this be a straightforward affair against Milwaukee?

Let's get to our Bucks vs. Timberwolves pick and prediction.

The break couldn't have come soon enough for the Bucks, who changed head coaches last month and went on to lose seven of their last 10 heading into last weekend. Doc Rivers was brought into shore up this team's defense, and to his credit they've ranked ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions in the month of February. The problem? This potent offense now sits just 21st over that span, losing its touch in a big way from outside.

Now, the Bucks are still scoring at the rim pretty much at will, and the drop-off in perimeter shooting can be blamed at least partially on an injury to Khris Middleton. He'll remain on the bench for this one, and the onus will be on Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez and Jae Crowder to step up their shooting amidst a cold spell.

The Bucks' biggest improvement on the defensive end has come around the arc, where they rank ninth in defending the 3 over the course of the month. They'd previously been a horrid team at stopping outside shooters, though their play at the rim has remained at a good level.

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The Timberwolves are virtually flawless on defense, remaining one of the best teams in the league in that area and covering every area of the floor with excellence. Teams have shot just 62.4% within four feet against this frontcourt, led by Rudy Gobert, and that number has fallen nearly eight points this month — remaining a top-five mark. Outside, things don't get much easier with a 35.6% opponent field goal percentage, a number that has remained consistent in February despite a diminishing rank among the rest of the league.

So in theory, this team should be in excellent position to stop a sputtering Bucks offense that will be heavily reliant upon interior scoring given their poor shooting over the last few weeks. In even better news, everyone has come out of the break healthy, with just Jaylen Clark missing from the lineup here due to his recovery from an Achilles injury.

The key on offense here for Minnesota will be attempting to score on a strong Bucks frontcourt, given most of its shots come around the rim. It ranks sixth in shooting accuracy within four feet this month, an upgrade over its 14th-place ranking for the year.

The Bucks were having a brutal time trying to shoot the ball prior to the break, and now they head on the road where they've been a far-worse shooting team this year against one of the strongest 3-point defenses in the league. On top of that, they'll be up against Gobert and one of the best groups of rim defenders in the world.

I don't think this is going to be a fruitful endeavor for the Bucks, who are 1-4 against the spread as road underdogs. The Timberwolves should be able to manage against a weak offensive team – still down Middleton – and score on an improved yet flawed defense.

Pick: Timberwolves -4 (-110)

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