The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-2) and Detroit Pistons (2-2) will face off in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Pistons are 4.5-point favorites over the Cavaliers on the spread (Pistons -4.5), with the over/under set at 212.5 total points. Detroit is a -175 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is priced as a +145 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 of this second-round playoff series on Wednesday, May 13.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Prediction
- Cavaliers vs Pistons pick: Pistons -4.5 (-105)
My Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 5 best bet is on Detroit to cover the spread (-4.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Odds for Game 5
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 212.5 -112o / -108u | +145 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 212.5 -112o / -108u | -175 |
Cavaliers vs Pistons NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview, Analysis
The Cavaliers head into Game 5 having managed to tie the series, but they are playing with fire on the road. Cleveland is a meager 1-4 ATS away from home in these playoffs, and while they stole Game 4, they relied heavily on a monster third quarter and a massive free throw disparity to get the job done.
Donovan Mitchell actually shot more free throws than the entire Pistons team combined last game—a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to repeat itself in Detroit tonight.
While the Cavs have found success with Caris LeVert as a bench weapon, it remains to be seen if he can continue to hit pull-up jumpers against softer defensive coverages on the road.
Cleveland has found a successful formula using James Harden as the primary initiator to get Mitchell loose off-ball, but their lack of road consistency remains a major red flag.
The Cavaliers' role players are likely to see their shooting percentages dip away from home, putting immense pressure on the Mitchell-Harden duo to carry the offense.
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview, Analysis
Despite the Game 4 loss, the Pistons are in a prime position to bounce back. If you look past the final score of the last game, Detroit actually shot better from the field and from deep, won the battle in the paint, led in fastbreak points, and won three of the four quarters.
The Pistons are starting to solve the Cavaliers' defensive puzzles; specifically, Cade Cunningham has begun rejecting screens in pick-and-rolls, a move that neutralizes Cleveland’s ability to contain him at the level.
As the series returns to Detroit, expect the Pistons' role players to shoot significantly better. The issues surrounding Duncan Robinson’s limited attempts and Ausar Thompson’s struggles were products of bad process, not bad design, and they will find more effective ways to involve them at home. Paul Reed continues to win his minutes and is providing more value as the series progresses.
If Detroit can maintain their process from last game while cleaning up the spacing to capitalize on Cade’s adjustments, they are the side to trust in Game 5 tonight.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Pick, Betting Analysis
Pistons -4.5 (-105)
The historical data for home favorites in a 2-2 series is overwhelming. Home teams in this specific spot are 99-35 SU and 71-63 ATS. When looking specifically at home favorites, that record is 95-27 SU and 67-55 (55%) ATS.
There are even more granular trends that favor Detroit here. Home favorites in a 2-2 series who won the fourth quarter of Game 4—as the Pistons just did—are 37-15-2 SU and 17-10 (63%) ATS in the first half of Game 5. Additionally, home favorites against division opponents in this spot are 90-38 SU, with a notable 33-20-1 (63%) ATS record in the first half.
Between the expected regression in free throw attempts and these dominant situational trends, I'm backing Detroit to cover the spread and reclaim the series lead in Game 5 tonight.
Under 212.5 (-108)
While the first half might lean toward the Over, this game is likely to get very tight in the second half. Both teams are going to get desperate, likely leading to a grind-it-out defensive atmosphere in the closing periods.
While there are player props that correlate to an Over, the broader postseason trends suggest a lower-scoring affair; the Under is 4-2 in Pistons' wins this postseason.
Expect the defensive intensity to ramp up as the stakes increase, keeping this total Under 212.5.
Head-t0-Head Scoring: Donovan Mitchell More Points than Cade Cunningham (-110)
I have played this head-to-head scoring prop in every game of this series except the first one, and it has gone 3-0 in those three games.
While Cunningham is figuring out how to counter the at-level coverage, Mitchell will continue to eat, much like he did in his explosive second-half performance in Game 4.
The Pistons are stubborn and unlikely to change their defensive coverage, and the Cavs have mastered using Mitchell off-ball to keep him loose.
James Harden Over 6.5 Assists
Harden is acting as the primary initiator more frequently as the series goes, which allows Mitchell to thrive in a scoring role.
Harden will have an array of assist chances—from lobs to bigs to kickouts to shooters—while Mitchell focuses on finishing.
Mitchell scores, Harden passes; that is the formula for Cleveland.
Matt Moore's Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 5 Best Bets
- Pistons -4.5 (-105)
- Under 212.5 (-108)
- H2H Scoring: Mitchell More Points than Cunningham (-110)
- James Harden Over 6.5 Assists (-130)
