How to Bet on Polymarket: A Beginner’s Guide With Real Trades

Looking for markets that settle within a week? The Week 10 board opens with Commanders at Giants on Thursday Night Football and closes with Chargers at Ravens on Monday Night Football, the featured game for this update. Sunday starts early with Patriots vs. Lions in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET and ends with Steelers at Bengals at 8:20 p.m. ET. In between, Saturday’s college slate includes Michigan at Oregon, Texas at LSU and USC at Indiana.

Monday’s game has more moving parts than the records suggest. The Chargers come in 0-8 and the Ravens 4-5. Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley to injured reserve, and head coach Jesse Minter, the Chargers’ former defensive coordinator, said he expects newly acquired Jacoby Brissett to start. At 4:05 p.m. ET on Nov. 9, the Polymarket game chart had the Ravens at a 69% chance to win and the Chargers at 32%.

Prices on these games will move all week, so check two numbers before you buy: the gap between the bid and the ask, and how many contracts sit at each price. On our Nov. 9 check of the Chargers at Ravens first-half market, that gap was 5¢, with about $2,700 offered across four prices. The next section shows that book and what crossing the spread would cost. For game previews through the week, see our prediction markets hub.

Schedule as of November 9, 2026. NFL kickoff times are Eastern and can change. College kickoff times and channels had not been announced when we checked, so they are listed as TBA.

Timing Your Orders on the Week 10 Board

The schedule changes how you should place orders this week, not just which games you can trade.

• Sunday’s early start: Patriots vs. Lions kicks off in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, more than three hours before the usual 1:00 p.m. window. If you rest a limit order on Saturday night, it only has until kickoff to fill, so check it when you wake up rather than at lunch.
• Good ’til canceled means canceled by you: The order ticket I used set the expiry to Good ’til canceled by default. A bid you forgot about can still fill if the price comes to it, so check your open orders before each kickoff and cancel anything you no longer want.
• Monday’s game sits through a full weekend: Chargers at Ravens is the last game on the board, so a price you see on Tuesday can move several times before kickoff on Nov. 16. If you rest an order early, recheck the bid and ask on Monday, once the rest of Week 10 has finished.
• College times are still TBA: Until the networks set Saturday’s kickoffs, you cannot know how long a resting order on Michigan at Oregon, Texas at LSU or USC at Indiana has to fill. Wait for the time before you rest a large order.

Schedule as of November 9, 2026. NFL kickoff times are Eastern and can change. College kickoff times and channels had not been announced when we checked, so they are listed as TBA.

Timing Your Orders on the Week 10 Board

The schedule changes how you should place orders this week, not just which games you can trade.

• Sunday’s early start: Patriots vs. Lions kicks off in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, more than three hours before the usual 1:00 p.m. window. If you rest a limit order on Saturday night, it only has until kickoff to fill, so check it when you wake up rather than at lunch.
• Good ’til canceled means canceled by you: The order ticket I used set the expiry to Good ’til canceled by default. A bid you forgot about can still fill if the price comes to it, so check your open orders before each kickoff and cancel anything you no longer want.
• Monday’s game sits through a full weekend: Chargers at Ravens is the last game on the board, so a price you see on Tuesday can move several times before kickoff on Nov. 16. If you rest an order early, recheck the bid and ask on Monday, once the rest of Week 10 has finished.
• College times are still TBA: Until the networks set Saturday’s kickoffs, you cannot know how long a resting order on Michigan at Oregon, Texas at LSU or USC at Indiana has to fill. Wait for the time before you rest a large order.

Schedule as of Nov. 9, 2026. Kickoff times and channels are in Eastern time and can change.

Timing Your Orders on the Week 10 Board

The schedule changes how you should place orders this week, not just which games you can trade.

• Sunday’s early start: Patriots vs. Lions kicks off in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, more than three hours before the usual 1:00 p.m. window. If you rest a limit order on Saturday night, it only has until kickoff to fill, so check it when you wake up rather than at lunch.
• Good ’til canceled means canceled by you: The order ticket I used set the expiry to Good ’til canceled by default. A bid you forgot about can still fill if the price comes to it, so check your open orders before each kickoff and cancel anything you no longer want.
• Monday’s game sits through a full weekend: Chargers at Ravens is the last game on the board, so a price you see on Tuesday can move several times before kickoff on Nov. 16. If you rest an order early, recheck the bid and ask on Monday, once the rest of Week 10 has finished.

I opened the Chargers at Ravens game in the Polymarket US app at 4:05 p.m. ET on Nov. 9, seven days before Monday Night Football. The book below is for one market inside that game: Ravens -2.5 in the first half, which pays $1.00 if Baltimore leads by 3 or more at halftime. The other side, Chargers +2.5, showed at 49¢ on the order ticket.

The best ask was 56¢ and the best bid was 51¢, so the spread was 5¢. The book showed no last trade yet, and the game page showed $3.62K in volume. At the same time, the game chart had the Ravens at a 69% chance to win the game and the Chargers at 32%.

The Running Total column adds up the cost of every contract from the best price outward. The $2,691.59 next to 59¢ is what it would cost to buy all 4,701 contracts offered from 56¢ to 59¢, an average of about 57.3¢. That is $59.03 more than the same contracts at 56¢, which is the slippage the glossary describes.

What Crossing a 5¢ Spread Costs on a 1,000-Contract Ticket

We priced a 1,000-contract Ravens first-half order both ways using this book and the fee table further down this page. A buy at the ask takes all 700 contracts at 56¢ and the next 300 at 57¢. The closest fee row for these prices is 50¢, where takers pay $1.50 per 100 contracts and makers receive $0.31.

Buying at the ask cost $71.10 more, about 14% of the resting order’s cost, and it raised the break-even chance by about seven points. The resting bid has its own risk: a seller has to come down 5¢ to meet it, so it may not fill before kickoff. A middle path is to rest a bid inside the gap, such as 53¢. That makes you the best bid in the book without paying the full spread.

Polymarket US covers game winners, spreads, totals, first-half markets, and combos across the NFL, MLB, NBA, and other major leagues, plus politics, economics, crypto, weather and more.

Game Lines cover the full outcome of a game (moneyline, spread, and total). If you're familiar with traditional sports betting, these are similar to the standard markets you would find at a sportsbook.

The two sides of any market always price close to 100¢ between them. If a moneyline is 52¢ on one team, the other side sits near 48¢. The small gap is the bid-ask spread.

1st Half Lines are markets restricted to what happens during the first two quarters (the 1st half) of a game. Whatever happens in the 3rd or 4th quarter or overtime is completely ignored.

The same three market types apply: moneyline, spread, and total. Only the settlement condition changes.

Combos link two or more markets into a single contract at a combined price, similar to a parlay. Every leg has to hit, one miss and the whole thing settles at $0.

The combined price is lower than either leg alone, which is why the payout multiplier is larger. A $10 trade on that 2-leg combo buys 40 contracts for $10.00 and returns $40.00 if both legs hit.

You can also check out our Action Network prediction markets leaderboard, where you can track the world's top event contract traders across Polymarket and other leading prediction markets.

Polymarket US is a prediction market where you buy Yes or No contracts on real-world events, priced from 1¢ to 99¢, each winning contract settling at $1.00.

It is built for American traders, and is considered one of the best prediction markets available.

In my app this week I found NFL and college football game markets, political markets such as the Senate races, and new 5-minute crypto markets for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. Users trade contracts directly with one another through an order book, so no operator sets a fixed price and takes a margin on it.

Polymarket Clearing handles clearing operations as a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. That gives U.S. traders a regulated framework, with direct deposits and cashouts in U.S. dollars.

Take a look at the most popular event contracts or "markets" available across the leading prediction market platforms.

Not in the legal sense. Polymarket US offers event contracts regulated as derivatives by the CFTC, not sportsbook bets licensed by state gaming commissions.

In practice, buying a Yes contract on an NFL game will feel familiar if you've used a sportsbook.

Both involve putting money on an uncertain outcome, and both can lose. The difference is who you're transacting with, how the price gets set, and who regulates it.

There's no vig. Polymarket US charges a taker fee that peaks at $1.50 per 100 contracts and pays makers a rebate instead.

A sportsbook builds its margin into the line. Polymarket charges separately and visibly, and only when your order removes liquidity from the book.

Takers pay. Makers get paid. If your order fills immediately against something already resting on the book, you're a taker. If you place a limit order that sits until someone else fills it, you're a maker, and Polymarket credits you a rebate at the moment of the fill.

The fee isn't a flat percentage. It scales with how uncertain the market is, peaking at a coin-flip price and shrinking toward both extremes:

A contract at 50¢ is maximum uncertainty, so it costs the most to trade. At 90¢ or 10¢ the outcome is closer to settled, and the fee drops by roughly two thirds.

What this means for a real trade. Our 20-contract Rams position at 48¢ cost about 30¢ in fees. A limit order at the same price would have earned roughly 6¢ back instead.

Trade more than $250,000 in a month and you start earning taker rebates too — 10% at that level, up to 50% above $10 million.

What Polymarket doesn't charge: membership fees, settlement fees, deposit fees, or withdrawal fees. Your bank or card issuer may still apply its own charges.

Fee schedule effective July 1, 2026. Rates can change. Check Polymarket's current schedule before trading at size.

Read More: Understanding Liquidity vs. Accuracy at Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders

A Polymarket contract's price tells you two things at once: what it costs, and the implied probability the market is assigning. A contract at 64¢ costs you 64 cents and implies a 64% chance.

Your payout is the full dollar amount returned to your account when a market resolves in your favor. Every winning Polymarket contract settles at exactly $1.00.

• Contracts = trade amount ÷ price (rounded down)
• Payout = contracts × $1.00

Polymarket US sells whole contracts only, so your amount rounds down to the nearest full contract and the remainder stays in your balance.

This is how it looks like on a real trade: We bought the Los Angeles Rams moneyline at 48¢ before the Rams–Saints game on Saturday, August 22:

• $10 ÷ $0.48 = 20.83, so 20 contracts for $9.60. The leftover 40¢ stayed in the account.
• Taker fee to open: about 30¢.
• We held through the game and sold at 99¢ once the result was clear: $19.80 back, minus about 6¢ in fees.
• Net profit: roughly $9.84 on $9.90 spent.

Selling a cent early cost us 20¢ against holding to settlement, and we had the cash back immediately.

Illustrative prices. Live prices move constantly.

Cheaper contracts pay more because the market thinks they're less likely to hit. Take a look at the 95¢ row: risking $9.50 to make 47 cents is a real trade some people make, but the margin for error is thin.

All the numbers here assume a taker order. A limit order that rests on the Polymarket book earns a small rebate instead.

Every Polymarket market has two sides, and the prices tell you what the market expects. In Rams–Saints, we bought the Rams at 48¢. The New Orleans Saints were the other side at 51¢.

The favorite: Rams at 48¢

• 48¢ per contract, implying a 48% chance
• $10 buys 20 contracts for $9.60, plus about 30¢ in fees
• If the Rams win: $20.00 back, roughly $10.10 profit

The underdog: Saints at 51¢

• 51¢ per contract, implying a 51% chance

• $10 buys 19 contracts for $9.69, plus about 30¢ in fees

• If the Saints win: $19.00 back, roughly $9.01 profit

Notice the two prices add up to 99¢, not a dollar. That gap is the bid-ask spread, and it's normal in any order book like Polymarket.

Nearly a coin flip, so the payouts land close together. The gap widens fast when the market is one-sided: a 20¢ underdog returns five times your money, while an 80¢ favorite returns about 25%.

Everyone makes rookie mistakes on Polymarket early on. Most are easy to avoid once you know what to watch for.

• Chasing cheap long shots. A Polymarket contract priced at $0.05 looks tempting because it's cheap. But cheap means the market thinks it probably won't happen. Buying a pile of long shots isn't a strategy. It's a fast way to watch your balance shrink.
• Ignoring the spread. In thin Polymarket markets, the gap between the buy and sell price can be wide. If you rush in, you might pay well above the midpoint and start the trade already behind. We bought a Marlins game contract on Polymarket at 64¢ on just $6.2K traded, and the book was still a penny wide. The Chargers at Ravens first-half book above was 5¢ wide with no trades yet, five times wider than that Marlins book. Check the spread before you buy.
• Forgetting the taker fee. Market orders on Polymarket pay a fee that peaks at $1.50 per 100 contracts on a coin-flip price. Place a limit order that rests on the book instead and you earn a small rebate. On close markets, that swing is bigger than the spread.
• Confusing probability with prediction. A Polymarket price isn't a promise. A contract at $0.70 doesn't mean the outcome happens. It means the market currently prices it around 70%. Your job is to spot when that number looks wrong, not to guess the future.
• Treating a combo of likely outcomes as likely. Each leg of my Senate combo was priced at 70% or higher, yet the combined chance was 39.2%. Multiply the legs before you trade.
• Expecting your position to look right immediately. Polymarket US only sells whole contracts, and the moment you buy, your position gets marked against the current bid, which sits below what you just paid. Nothing has gone wrong. That gap is the spread, and it's why a fresh trade almost always shows a small paper loss.
• Skimming the resolution rules. This one stings the most. A Polymarket market can look obvious and still settle in a way you didn't expect, all because of one line in the fine print. Read the rules every single time.

And the one that matters most: only trade what you can afford to lose. Prices move fast on Polymarket, and a 100% loss is always possible. Start small, learn how the markets behave, and build from there.

Whether it's your first trade or your hundredth, always remember that trading carries real risk. A losing contract settles at $0.00, and the whole position is gone.

Polymarket US is a federally regulated exchange operating under CFTC-mandated user protection standards. Since March 2026, insider trading guardrails have blocked athletes, coaches, and political candidates from trading events they can influence, and every market page carries a whistleblower tool.

Polymarket US now has responsible trading tools such as self-exclusion and deposit limits, though they might be hard to find in the app for now.

So on Polymarket, the guardrails are yours to build. Three that work:

• Set a monthly ceiling before you fund the account, and treat it as spent money the moment it lands.
• Don't deposit twice in one day. If you've lost and you're reaching for the deposit button again, that's the moment to close the app.
• Check your position history weekly. Not the wins, the total.

If trading stops feeling like a choice, you can check our responsible trading guide or call 1-888-532-3500 if you need to talk to someone.

As you learn how to use Polymarket, you might come across some common prediction markets terminology like:

New to Polymarket? These are the terms you'll run into most.