Mavericks vs Suns Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for NBA Christmas Day

Here's everything you need to know about Mavs vs Suns to close out NBA Christmas on Monday — our expert Mavericks vs Suns picks and prediction and our best bet on NBA Christmas Day.

The Dallas Mavericks travel to take on an injured Phoenix Suns team on Christmas night. Will Luka continue to own Devin Booker or will the Suns be motivated to defend their homecourt here?

Let's get to our Mavericks vs. Suns picks and prediction, where the lines have been on the move. Originally, we were on the over at a total of 237. That's been bet up throughout Christmas, with only one book still having a 242 in the market. That's our threshold for this pick, but the good news is that there is another option on the spread.

Pick: Over 242 | Mavs +4.5 (Play to +4)

Focusing on the Mavericks, we see they are 17-12 and rank 13^th in net-rating (+1.0), but they also take a hit when you adjust for schedule strength as they rank 17^th in adjusted net-rating over at dunksandthrees.com. The Mavericks have remade themselves this year, as they currently rank ninth in pace after ranking bottom-5 in pace each of the past three seasons. I’ve liked this shift as it makes sense that a team that gets up this many threes wants to play as many possessions as possible to maximize their math edge.

The Mavs rank second in the NBA in offensive 3-point attempt rate (43.3%), and that should prove important here as the Suns rank just 23^rd in offensive three point attempt rate. The Mavericks should be getting up a lot more 3s than the Suns, so the Suns will need KD and Book to be hyper-efficient from the mid-range if they want to win this game.

The Mavericks are also dealing with injury issues as they will be without two starters Josh Green and Kyrie Irving here. Rookie Dereck Lively is also questionable with an ankle injury so monitor the injury report as Lively is easily their most impactful defender and would be a huge boost to their defense. With Lively on the floor the Mavs have a respectable defensive rating of 114.1 and with him off the floor they drop to a poor 120.4 defensive rating.

The Suns have underperformed expectations massively this season as they are just 14-14 and sit outside of the playoff picture as the 11^th seed in the Western Conference. They are currently 15^th in net-rating (+0.7), but when you adjust for the fact that they’ve played the single easiest schedule of opponents thus far, they rank 19^th in adjusted net-rating per dunksandthrees.com.

You could argue they’ve had bad injury luck, but that was always going to be a concern with a team this top-heavy, and I don’t think Bradley Beal is going to magically solve all their problems when he returns.

Focusing on this Christmas matchup, the Suns will be without Jusuf Nurkic and Beal here. Nurkic is a massive loss for them as he has been one of their most impactful players this season. He leads the team with a +15.0 net-rating swing; essentially, the team is +15.0 points better with him on the floor per 100 possessions. Nurkic is basically their only quality center and rim-protector and with him out, we should see more Drew Eubanks minutes and small-ball lineups.

The Suns have played just 187 possessions with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor and Nurkic off. In that small sample size, they have a solid offensive rating of 121.4 and an awful defensive rating of 133.3. They are also allowing opponents to rebound 36% of their misses (first percentile) so expect the Mavericks to generate second chances today. Overall, the offense should remain efficient without Nurkic but the defense will likely look awful tonight against a potent Mavericks offense.

I like the over a lot here. I went through just how bad the Suns defense has been without Nurkic, and I expect them to struggle to keep Luka away from the rim with him out. Even with Lively set to go, his impact should be slightly muted as the Suns are heavily reliant on jump shooting and don’t have many guys who like to attack the rim.

Additionally, this Mavericks defense might be overrated as they have played the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses this year. Despite that easy schedule they still rank just 23^rd in defensive rating. The Mavs offense might actually be underrated as they’ve played the fourth toughest schedule of opposing defenses this year and still rank ninth in offensive rating despite missing Kyrie Irving for most of the season. These schedule quirks are just little things to add to my further conviction for the over here. I’m taking over 237.5 but would be willing to play this up to 242.

If the total goes over 242, you might also consider taking the points with the Mavericks, as our NBA expert Matt Moore suggests in his Christmas Day betting card: "Dereck Lively is back for the Mavericks (per Marc Stein) in this one, and that's all I need to get the value on Dallas. Based on full-season numbers, I make this Mavericks -4.25, and Kyrie Irving cannot account for that differential. The Suns are desperate, so it's a good spot for them, but more than one possession is too much for the Mavericks with Lively back. Dallas is 14-9 ATS with Lively in the lineup, 1-5 without him."

Pick: Over 242 | Mavs +4.5 (Play to +4)