Mavericks vs Spurs Odds, Picks, Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Tuesday, March 19)

Mavericks vs Spurs Odds, Picks, Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Tuesday, March 19) article feature image
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Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 of the Dallas Mavericks shoots the ball against the San Antonio Spurs in the first half at American Airlines Center on February 14, 2024 in Dallas, Texas.

Mavericks vs Spurs Odds

Tuesday, Mar. 19
8 p.m. ET
League Pass
Mavericks Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-8.5
-112
231.5
-110o / -110u
-335
Spurs Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+8.5
-108
231.5
-110o / -110u
+270
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Spurs on Tuesday, Mar. 19 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Dallas Mavericks will play six of their next seven games on the road, and they visit the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night.

Dallas is coming off a buzzer-beating left-handed hook shot by Kyrie Irving to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets, 107-105, at the American Airlines Center.

A fifth victory in six games propelled the Mavericks to within a half-game of the Kings for the sixth seed in the West.

As for the Spurs, they outlasted the Nets in overtime, 122-115, to pick up just their 15th win of the season. I was on the right side of that decision, as I felt it was the right situational spot and a game the Spurs had to have.

While perhaps the Spurs tend to relax after a rare win, I'm not sure it'll matter too much with a red-hot Dallas team coming to town.

In this preview, I'll share why the Mavericks, as favorites, are nestled right in the perfect price range for bettors to take advantage.


Dallas Mavericks

Whenever a team plays a bit better, I look to their recent form to see where the gains are coming from. I'm particularly looking to see if the team is playing better defense, which tends to require more effort and commitment than on offense with these incredibly skilled athletes.

The data shows the Mavericks have been playing better defense. Over their last six games, they boast a 110.3 defensive rating, per NBA.com, which ranks 10th in the league during that stretch.

Looking at the Mavericks' defensive efficiency over the entire season, they're 21st, allowing 116.7 points per 100 possessions.

We already know this Dallas team can score — that's a given. However, the defensive end of the floor is where it can really take its game to the next level.

It also helps when the Mavericks can put out a lineup with both of their superstars on the court together. Irving and Luka Doncic have only played together in 40 of the 68 games this season, according to GimmeTheDog.

In those games, Dallas is 25-15 (62.5%), and when one or both players don't play, the Mavericks are just 14-14.

If the two stars can stay healthy and Dallas continues to play better defense, the Mavericks can be a legitimate contender in the Western Conference playoff picture.

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San Antonio Spurs

Although the Spurs are 33-32-3 to the under this season, they have the ninth-highest average total (233.3), per KillerSports. Their high average total doesn't reflect an offense that's 27th in efficiency with 109.7 points per 100 possessions.

We're seeing these high totals primarily because of their defense, or lack thereof, as San Antonio ranks 23rd in this category with a 117.0 rating.

Now, the Spurs have to find a way to slow down a Dallas unit that's one of the most efficient teams in the league.

Scoring is what the Mavericks do best, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency with a 117.9 value. That mark is almost one point better per 100 possessions than the Spurs allow this season.

And when you look at the past three meetings between the teams, the Mavericks won by an average of 18.3 points.

Simply put, this Dallas team is a bad matchup for the Spurs — particularly with the Mavericks starting to flex their muscles on the defensive end.


Mavericks vs Spurs

Betting Pick & Prediction

I always try to pay attention to the postgame comments to gain some insight into a team's mindset. Following the Mavericks' win over the Nuggets, Irving detailed the importance of Dallas trying to finish the campaign in the top six of the conference.

"We're kind of fighting for the sixth spot — it's on your mind," Irving told reporters. "And as a competitor, you want to play well. I feel like we answered that call the majority of the game."

If you're a Mavericks fan, hearing Irving speak candidly about that sixth spot should please you because it shows a clear goal the team is trying to achieve this season.

As a result, I think the Mavericks will be laser-focused on this game against a Spurs team they've dominated this season. The Mavs are also 9-1 straight up against the Spurs and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings.

While I'm rarely a fan of laying points on the road, this is one spot where it makes a ton of sense.

Lastly, Dallas has been very reliable in this price range when it opens as a favorite, laying eight to 10 points with a closing spread that falls between eight and 12 points.

According to our Action Labs database, the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in this spot.

After shopping around, BetRivers has the best price with Dallas at -8 at -112 odds.

Pick: Mavericks -8 (-112)

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Nick Sterling
May 21, 2024 UTC