Betting Odds: Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings
- Spread: Kings -8
- Over/Under: 219.5
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 6:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
Right around 5:30 p.m. ET, Detroit Pistons big man Blake Griffin was ruled out for Thursday's game against the Sacramento Kings due to rest.
This spread opened at Kings -5, and prior to the Griffin news, it was hovering around -5 to -5.5 depending on the sportsbook. After the rest news, however, it shot way up to -8 and the over/under dipped from the opening number of 224.5 to 219.5.
Betting Market Impact
Griffin is clearly incredibly important to the Pistons, as evidenced by his +7.4 on/off court differential this season — right at the 82nd percentile of players. A big chunk of that is on offense, as the Pistons have been 8.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on vs. off.
The Pistons have also been much better in transition this season with Griffin playing, and he's been good at pushing off live rebounds. So it's no surprise that the spread shot up and the over/under dipped.
The Pistons are on a road back-to-back Thursday night as well, and they're in the midst of some poor basketball: They've gone just 2-8 straight-up and against the spread over their past 10 games.
The Kings, meanwhile, are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS this season as favorites. They're 13-7-1 ATS the spread at home — and that's against the closing number.
Fantasy Impact
Here's the news blurb from our FantasyLabs news feed:
Griffin logged a team-high 37 minutes on Wednesday and failed to record a rebound for the first time in his career. There is no word on who will replace him in the starting lineup.
Jon Leuer started the previous game without Griffin, but Zaza Pachulia (leg) and Henry Ellenson (ankle) were available.
Stanley Johnson is a candidate to start while Luke Kennard, Leuer and Glenn Robinson III could see an uptick in playing time. Andre Drummond becomes a strong cash-game option with Griffin out of the lineup, and the Kings allow the most offensive and defensive rebounds per game to opposing centers this season.
Check out our FantasyLabs NBA Models for updated projections, which we'll continue to adjust all night as we get word on who will start for Griffin.
We've already talked about liking Drummond's rebound prop tonight extensively, but that might be the best way to take advantage of this news now that the betting market has already moved. It's slightly up to 16 rebounds in most places, but we're projecting him for 19.1 currently in our FantasyLabs Props tool.
