Donovan Mitchell Traded to Cavaliers: Odds Movement for Cavs, Knicks, Jazz
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell.
No one expected a bombshell like this to drop on Thursday, but Donovan Mitchell has finally been traded and is on his way to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
On Thursday, Adrian Wojnarowski reported the trade of Mitchell to the Cavaliers, after weeks of rumored momentum toward a trade of Mitchell to the New York Knicks, among other teams.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have acquired Donovan Mitchell in a trade, sources tell ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 1, 2022
Following the trade, the whole world of betting markets shifted, as is expected following a big move like this.
The Cavaliers' win total moved from 42.5 to 45.5 at FanDuel, while their odds to win the Central Division moved from +700 to +300. In the NBA championship market, Cleveland shortened from +9000 to +3000, the sixth-shortest number for an Eastern Conference team.
This win total isn't concrete, however. At DraftKings, the win total for the Cavaliers is at 46.5, while PointsBet came back with the Cavs' over/under at 48.5 — so if you're planning to make a bet based on this news, make sure to find the best line available.
(Mitchell also moved from +10000 to win MVP in 2022-23 to +6000 at PointsBet after the trade.)
With the market having already shifted, the best value is probably to wait and see how far hype carries it. If the Cavaliers approach 49.5 wins, there’s probably value on the under despite how good the Cavs were when fully healthy last season.
Playoff odds have already jumped to -310 at FanDuel.
If you want to bet on the Cavs’ upside, the best bet is likely to win 50-plus games at FanDuel at +175. Betting the Division at +300 is hard to back considering that the Bucks return all their key pieces and have won the division each year Mike Budenholzer has been coach.
If it’s not the Bucks, though, it’s the Cavs. So if you want to simply bet on random injury variance on Milwaukee, the +300 is a good return.
But what about the other teams impacted? First and foremost, the Jazz shifted from a 32.5 win total to an even smaller 27.5, as oddsmakers are now confident that the rebuild is completely on in Utah.
New York Knicks fans can rest a touch easy knowing that even though they weren't able to land Mitchell, their win total did remain steady at 39.5.
Perhaps missing out on Mitchell won't be the worst thing in the world for the Knicks.
Heading back to Utah in exchange for Mitchell will be Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji, three first-round picks and two pick swaps.
Last season, the Jazz were one of the worst bets in basketball, going 34-51-3 against the spread. On the flip side, the 'Cavs were solid ATS, going 43-37-4.
We'll continue to keep you updated on this developing story.