How Evan Mobley’s Injury Impacts Rookie of the Year Odds, Fantasy Basketball, More
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Cavs F Evan Mobley
Leading Rookie of the Year Award candidate Evan Mobley is expected to miss the next two to four weeks with an elbow injury that caused him to exit the Cleveland Cavaliers’ most recent loss to the Boston Celtics on Monday.
This is a tough loss for the Cavaliers since they have started the season strongly. Mobley has played a major factor in that success with both his defense and his offense, which has been surprisingly polished for a rookie.
Here’s how that can impact the Cavaliers moving forward.
Evan Mobley’s Injury Impact on Cavaliers
The Cavaliers, who are the best team against the spread (10-4 ATS this season) opened as 13-point dogs against Brooklyn, which will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Nets.
Typically, we’d expect a larger output from Jarrett Allen, but he’s already been ruled out for Wednesday’s contest with an illness.
Jarrett Allen (illness) ruled out for Wednesday. https://t.co/sZZEKgQZi1
— FantasyLabs NBA (@FantasyLabsNBA) November 16, 2021
It’s possible that Kevin Love and/or Lauri Markkanen return on Wednesday given how short staffed the Cavs are, but if they are unable to go, the team will turn to Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, and even Tacko Fall for minutes.
Love and Markkanen were just held out of Monday’s contest due to conditioning as they are working back into game shape after quarantining for 10 days due to COVID; they may not play their typical allotment of minutes when they do return.
As far as the Cavaliers go, Mobley’s absence will be felt. Mobley was averaging 14.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists on 49.4% shooting while also contributing 1.6 blocks and 1.0 steals per game.
The Cavaliers had a Net Rating of +3.5 when Mobley was on the floor, and he truly anchored their defense and the team’s Defensive Rating was a staunch 99.6 with him in the lineup.
Mobley’s On/Off differential is incredible. When he’s been on the floor, opponents see their Effective Field Goal Percentage dive by an average of 7.5 percentage points, their field goal percentage at the rim drops by 8.6 points and their midrange shots by 10.4 percentage points.
He’s an anchor defensively and his ability to play switch cannot be understated for the Cavaliers moving forward. They do not have a big that can play that scheme as effectively as Mobley.
Impact on Rookie of the Year Odds
Mobley’s contributions catapulted him to the top of the Rookie of the Year odds, and this morning his listed odds were as low at +175, while Scottie Barnes (+300), Jalen Green (+500), Cade Cunningham (+550) all trailed him.
Now, there’s been a shake-up. At DraftKings, Barnes is now the favorite (+225), while Mobley (+275), Cunningham (+300), and Green (+500) have seen their odds shift a bit.
The buy-low window on Cunningham is now closed, and while Mobley is not out of the running just yet, if he misses four weeks he certainly will have given other rookies an opportunity to close the gap or surpass him.