Fantasy Basketball Forecast: Trayce Jackson-Davis rising, Ausar Thompson struggling

Hope you were able to navigate last week's gametime decision hellscape.

I smoked someone by about 300 points in our Action Network points league, but in the category league I care most about, I lost 5-3-1… we were tied in steals, and I lost by two rebounds, or maybe it was the four assists.

Donovan Mitchell missed three of a possible four games last week, Luka Doncic missed a big one, Eric Gordon was a horrendous stream one night, and Bilal Coulibaly crashed back to earth.

Them's the fantasy breaks. 

Let's get to the notes. 

Fantasy Friendly Team of the Week: Phoenix Suns  

The Suns have four games this week and zero back-to-backs, and with their injury crisis surrounding Bradley Beal, they will graciously provide us with ample streaming options in Week 10 of fantasy basketball. And, of course, opportunities — especially with the lack of back-to-backs. 

Here's the schedule: 

• Monday: Home vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Wednesday: At Houston Rockets
• Friday: Home vs. Charlotte Hornets
• Sunday: Home vs. Orlando Magic

Sure, the matchup against the Rockets isn't great, but it's the only road game you'll stomach this week, which is fine considering no back-to-backs. 

Beal isn't expected to be back this week and is the only long-term injury on the roster. For their official injury report heading into Christmas Day against the Mavs, Jusuf Nurkic is listed as out (personal), but otherwise, Eric Gordon (hip), Josh Okogie (hip) and Yuta Watanabe (finger sprain) are all probable to play, according to multiple reports. 

Even though their depth isn't actually that good, they'll have streaming opportunities this week, the issue is knowing where to go, but that depends on what you'll actually need given the makeup of your roster on any particular night. 

Must Plays: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker 

Mostly Good Options: Jusuf Nurkic (when healthy)

Streaming Candidates: Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie

Deep League/YOLO/I Gotta Play Streaming Candidates: Drew Eubanks, Jordan Goodwin

Fantasy Un-Friendly Team of the Week: Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets schedule sucks:

• Tuesday: At Los Angeles Clippers
• Thursday: At Los Angeles Lakers
• Friday: At Phoenix Suns 

The good news is that they'll have three games in five nights to start the week, but if you stream any Hornets, you'll be tempted to drop them by the weekend. On top of that, they are in Los Angeles, then Phoenix. These are the first three games of an extended road trip that'll keep them away from Charlotte through the first week of January. And, on top of that, Mark Williams is still out with a back injury. 

Absolute Keepers: LaMelo Ball

Keepers Who Might Miss Time This Week: Terry Rozier, Mark Williams 

Keeper But… Yanno: Miles Bridges

Starts You're Not Excited About: Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Brandon Miller

Stream-worthy: Nick Richards

INJURY PIVOTS

Originally, it was believed Robinson would be back in time for a late-season push, but now, reports suggest he'll miss the rest of the 2023-24 season. If you were a Robinson fantasy owner, plan accordingly. 

Team Pivots: Isaiah Hartenstein — pick him up immediately if available

Waiver Wire Pivots: Bobby Portis, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Naz Reid, Nick Richards (if Mark Williams remains out)

Embiid will miss Monday's game against the Miami Heat with an ankle injury, with no confirmation he'll be back immediately after as he did not even make the trip to Miami.

Team Pivots: Paul Reed

Waiver Wire Pivots: Bobby Portis, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Naz Reid, Nick Richards (if Mark Williams remains out)

RISERS

B-ball Paul is expected to get a sizeable increase in role, as long as Embiid misses time with an ankle injury. We already know he's missing Christmas Day against the Heat in Miami, and his next opportunity to play would be Wednesday in Orlando at the Magic. 

The Sixers also have a back-to-back on Friday to Saturday, in Houston and in Chicago — hell of a flight for two straight games. 

Reed is like the backup quarterback we all secretly like and wish he'd get a real opportunity somewhere else because he's behind one of the best in the league. 

He's only made five career starts, all within the last three seasons, and has averaged 11.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.6 steals per game. If he gave you that as a streamer, you'd be thrilled.

This season, he's at 5.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 stocks per game despite just logging 13.7 minutes. In three games without Embiid, Reed has made one start and averaged 24.7 minutes per contest, putting up 11.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game while shooting 70% from the field. 

A lot of people are learning about Trayce Jackson-Davis, and don't feel bad, but just know he's tearing s**t up right now. 

We wondered aloud who would be the biggest beneficiary in Draymond Green's absence. Would it be Kevon Looney? Dario Saric? Jonathan Kuminga? Moses Moody? 

It's been Jackson-Davis … and Kuminga is his only challenger. Saric and Looney have been fine, though neither have proven to be keepers amid Green's suspension, but both have provided decent streaming efforts. Moody isn't giving you much, Kuminga's been very good over the past week, and Andrew Wiggins is sick. 

Jackson-Davis is an athletic 6-foot-9 big who was selected 57th in the 2023 NBA Draft out of Indiana. TJD is averaging 11.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 blocks and 0.8 steals over his last four games. I missed out on adding him in my two main leagues, and in one, I lost this week because of it (literally those two aforementioned rebounds). 

He is fantasy-relevant right now and could be if he permanently earns a rotation spot, even as he won't continue to do this all season, presumably. 

FALLERS

Do not drop Ausar Thompson yet … but he's gotta be on thin ice. 

Thompson is just at 6.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 stocks over his last five. The rebounds have dropped off significantly — in fact, he hasn't pulled down 10 boards in a game since Nov. 19. Additionally, he doesn't really score, and we're not sure he will in this environment. 

You keep him with the hopes these are the ebbs and flows of being a rookie, but the best-case scenario is an extension of what we saw before December, which will be difficult to replicate until later in the year when the Pistons have presumably sold off some veterans. 

I'm not dropping Herb Jones yet. 

On the high end, he is a stat-sheet stuffer who is capable of filling out a modest amount in all categories efficiently, but more importantly, can explode in steals and or blocks on any given night. He's only at 6.5 points, 2.0 assists, 1.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks over his last six games, a span in which he's gotten double-digit points just once. He hasn't gotten more than one stock in any of his last four games. And he's only had more than two rebounds once over the last two weeks. 

That said, I think it's more of a temporary dip, so I'm holding for now, but if this continues between now and New Year's Eve, you might have to leave Jones behind heading into 2024.