Heat vs. 76ers Sharp Betting Picks (Dec. 18): How Pros Are Betting Spread, Over/Under

Heat vs. 76ers Sharp Betting Picks (Dec. 18): How Pros Are Betting Spread, Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler

  • The updated betting odds for Wednesday's Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers game make the 76ers a big favorites (spread: Philly -8) with the over/under set at 209.
  • Below, we'll analyze how professional bettors are playing both the spread and total in this matchup.

On a fairly busy nine-game Wednesday NBA slate, two bets have been offering significant value in the eyes of sharp bettors.

Interestingly, both have come from the same matchup, and it’s one that should draw plenty of eyeballs.


Odds as of Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.


Heat vs. 76ers Sharp Betting Picks

7 p.m. ET | ESPN

Joel Embiid’s status (illness) was in question when lines first opened for this game, but as of yesterday afternoon it became clear that the big man would be good to go. As a result, the Sixers spread inched up from -6.5 to -7, meaning sportsbooks were already accounting for most of Embiid’s worth to the spread.

Taking a glance at the current Eastern Conference standings (which is a common starting point for recreational bettors), however, reveals just a half-game difference between the two teams, with the Sixers at 20-8 and the Heat at 19-8. A seven-point cover sounds like a lot to ask from Philly against such a similarly-performing opponent.

Perhaps that’s why, even with Embiid in the lineup, only 34% of bettors have laid the points in this matchup. Interestingly, though, the spread has continued to rise, reaching -8 across most of the market.

The 34% of bettors backing the Sixers have generated exactly half of the money being wagered so far, which means the overall action has been more balanced, but more importantly shows the opinion of bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have confirmed the professional action on the home team, revealing five instances of market-moving Sixers money (most recently at -7.5). No such activity has been identified on Miami.

As for the total, a similar story is taking place in the betting market. Oddsmakers have dropped the number from 213 to a consensus 209.5 despite only 33% of bettors backing the under.

In this case, those bettors have accounted for nearly half (48%) of the money hitting the total, and SI’s Bet Signals have again confirmed that to be indicative of sharp action.

They’ve triggered four moves on the under to just one on the over, driving this line down to its current number.

Sharp angles: 76ers (moved from -6.5 to -8), Under (moved from 213 to 209.5)

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