Heat vs Bulls Prediction, Pick Today: Best Bet Monday

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs Bulls on Monday, Nov. 20 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Miami Heat take on the Chicago Bulls in a rewind of Saturday night’s matchup—one of the more surprising games of the season so far. The Heat dominated the Bulls for more than seven minutes to start the game, outscoring Chicago 22-1 out the gate. The Bulls somewhat closed the gap by the second quarter, but the game was a mirror image of itself—not unlike the two teams playing.

Miami came into the game riding high off of a seven-game win streak, while Chicago had dropped three straight, and won only two of their last nine games. It quickly seemed like the recent trends would prevail with such a lopsided start, but the second and third quarters evened out. It wasn’t until a massive push from DeMar DeRozan and Co. in the fourth quarter where things became interesting and Chicago was able to eke out a 102-97 win.

Monday night, they’ll do it all over again. Let's get to our Heat vs Bulls prediction and pick.

Zach Lavine rumors have been swirling and a trade seems inevitable at this point. From the eye-test, there have been plenty of chemistry issues to start the 2023-24 campaign after a 5-9 start. Even after Saturday’s big win, Lavine didn’t seem happy and appeared to blow off a Bulls PR contact before heading straight to the locker room.

Before losing in the play-in last season to none other than the Miami Heat, the Bulls boasted the best defense in the league post-trade deadline and were 10^th in Net Rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Billy Donovan had them locked in defensively. While that defense hasn’t fully translated to this season, they’re still in the middle of the pack, ranking 16^th in Adjusted Defensive Rating, per Dunks and Threes.

The offense is more of a problem, though. Chicago plays at the fifth-slowest pace—operating mostly in the halfcourt—but they have the fifth-worst halfcourt offense in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. Their most efficient offense comes in transition off of steals, but they get the fifth-fewest opportunities in that context. Until they figure out how to score efficiently, the under will be a solid look for Chicago, although I don’t see much value at 212 which was last game’s closing total.

The hope for Chicago was that any or all of their young hopefuls—Coby White, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu—might take a leap this season. So far, White has been the only bright spot. His shooting efficiency is still an issue, especially on the road (37% field goal percentage), but he’s more comfortable in a scoring role at home, increasing from 8.8 points per game on the road, to 13.1 at home. He cleared his points prop at 10.5 on Saturday and at the same number I’d look to his over again.

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As sure as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, the Heat continue to find meaningful rotation players seemingly out of nowhere. For this season’s edition, we have Haywood Highsmith—an undrafted 26-year-old who’s helped Miami’s defense more than anything. He has a +1.2 Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, which puts him in the 91^st percentile among forwards per Dunks and Threes. His length, athleticism and basketball IQ are exactly what the Heat look for in players, although he struggles on the offensive end, as he failed to score against the Bulls on Saturday.

Jaime Jacquez Jr. is the other standout for the Heat, who was drafted with the 18^th pick of the draft and has been a strong contributor as a rookie for Miami. He has some 3-and-D qualities similar to Highsmith, but Jaquez Jr. can get to the rim as well in a way Highsmith cannot. He didn’t drive much last game—a result of the Bulls surprising ability to limit opponents at the rim. Jaquez Jr. scored just six points last game as a result.

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Miami’s defense was a big reason for the 22-1 run in the first quarter, and that’s something that’s been consistent throughout the season so far, locking in and playing with a lead by halftime—something I expect will continue tonight. They’re second in first half Defensive Rating (103.2) and fourth in Net Rating (+8.9), which has led them to the second best record against the spread in the first half, behind only the Orlando Magic. The Heat are 10-2-1 ATS this season, and when coming off a loss, they’ve also fared quite well historically. Since Jimmy Butler joined the Heat, they’re 35-22-1 ATS on the road in the first half following a loss, netting a 17.4% ROI.

I lean over based on season data, but last game wasn’t encouraging. Even still, I like Coby White to go over his points prop if it’s set at 10.5 again. He’s gone over that number in seven of nine games in Chicago this season, with his two unders coming against Orlando, the third-best defense in the league. Regardless of location, White has also cleared 10.5 points in seven of nine games in November.

Pick:  Heat 1H Spread (1u) | Coby White o10.5 Points (0.5u)

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