Heat vs Magic Picks, Prediction Today | Sunday, Jan. 21

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. Magic on Sunday, Jan. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Orlando Magic host the Miami Heat on Sunday night in a battle of cross-state rivals. The rivalry hasn’t been competitive of late, as the Heat have won the last three meetings and eight of the last 10 since the Bubble season. Miami has also looked like the better team lately, although the Magic have been without arguably their best player in Franz Wagner, who has missed the last eight games with an ankle injury. He’s questionable to play Sunday.

The Heat will be without rookie standout Jaime Jaquez Jr. (groin) while Tyler Herro (shoulder) is probable.

Let's get to our Heat vs. Magic prediction and pick.

The Heat are one of those tricky teams to handicap. They’re a team whose primary focus is on the postseason, with a championship-or-bust mentality. Their run to the NBA Finals last season was shocking, but also wholly unsurprising to anyone who’s witnessed the Miami Heat’s continued over-achievement the past 20 seasons or so.

As a result of such lofty, big-picture expectations, Miami’s effort can vary from night to night over the course of an 82-game season. Despite a respectable 24-18 record, the Heat are just 20-22 against the spread, per EV Analytics. If you were to wager on them in every game, you’d pull a -8.98% return on investment, the 19th-best mark in the league.

First halves have been a completely different story, however. In the first two quarters, the Heat are the third-best team in the league at 26-14-2 ATS for a 22.64% ROI. They’ve been horrible to close out games, with the third-worst record in the fourth quarter at 14-27-1 ATS.

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The Magic have had a great start to the 2023-24 season. At 22-20, they’re on pace to easily exceed their preseason win total, but injuries have caused them to falter more recently. Big man Wendell Carter Jr. has played just 16 games after missing the majority of November and more than half of December, but Orlando has fared well without him (16-10) thanks to the play of center Goga Bitadze.

Wagner’s skillset is more sorely missed, however. The Magic’s already bottom-10 offense doesn’t have nearly enough firepower without Wagner’s ability to put pressure on opposing defenses. Orlando is just 3-5 in this stretch without him and 2-6 ATS. This matchup in particular is a rough one for Orlando, which relies on rim pressure to create scoring opportunities more than any other team in the league. Meanwhile, Miami has the second-lowest rim rate on defense.

I can only look to the Heat in this game, especially if Wagner remains out. My model shows value on Orlando for the full game — and the Magic are 11-7 ATS in the first half after losses this season — so I’ll target the first-half line for Miami.

This is a great bounce-back spot for the Heat after a buzzer-beating loss to the Hawks on Friday. Since Jimmy Butler joined the team in 2019, the Heat are 41-23-1 ATS (22% ROI) in the first half off a loss, including 7-2 this season (47% ROI), per BetLabs.

I like this bet regardless of Wagner’s status, but I wouldn’t blame you for waiting to see if he plays before placing it.

Pick: Miami Heat 1H (Bet to -2)

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