Heat vs Spurs Prediction, Picks Tonight | Best Bet Sunday

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs Spurs on Sunday, Nov. 12 — our expert prediction and best bet for today.

The Miami Heat travel to San Antonio to face the Spurs on Sunday for their fourth game in seven nights.

Jimmy Butler was a last-minute scratch from Saturday’s contest against the Hawks for personal reasons, but the Heat secured an easy 117-109 victory over Atlanta thanks to a monster night from Bam Adebayo.

Meanwhile, the Spurs will look to bounce back after a loss to Minnesota in their first In-Season Tournament game of the season.

Let's get to our Heat vs Spurs prediction and pick.

It’s difficult to quantify from an ATS record standpoint, but a counterintuitive, yet profitable spot to back NBA teams is in their first game without their star player.

The bookmakers often overreact to one game, especially since these are double motivation spots. The team facing an incomplete roster tends to lose focus and play down to the competition, but the team missing its star has the added motivation of playing a man down, which acts as a galvanizing force.

The other stars step up and the ancillary rotation players get a chance to shine with increased usage and opportunity. The line adjustment is often more drastic than the loss of the player.

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That was certainly the case Saturday for the Heat, who surprised bookmakers with an upset win over the Hawks despite playing without Butler or Tyler Herro — who will miss at least two weeks with a Grade 2 ankle sprain.

It’s unclear how much time Butler will miss, but his status should be monitored. Adebayo led the Heat with 26 points, 17 rebounds and four assists on 9-of-12 shooting. He was also a perfect 8-of-8 from the line.

The Spurs made a late surge against the Timberwolves on Friday, but lost 117-110 — though they did cover. Victor Wembanyama had a monster game and finished with 29 points, nine rebounds, four assists and four blocks. The young big man is meeting the high expectations and is the betting favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award. The Spurs have exceeded expectations — despite a lack of consistency — but that’s to be expected from a young team.

Thanks to having the worst defense in the league, the Spurs are 8-1 to the over and a perfect 4-0 to the over at home. They’re allowing opponents to score 124.9 points per game, second only to the Wizards at 126.5. The Heat are 10th at 110.1.

Sunday will be the fifth game in eight days for the Spurs, who have lost every one of those games. But with their first cover in that span coming last game against the Wolves, I see some improvement from San Antonio. The Spurs will benefit from a more recent rest advantage as they're playing at home with a day off in between games.

Meanwhile, the Heat will have to travel from Atlanta to San Antonio. This is a great spot to back the young Spurs and fade a team that overachieved last game. If you want to monitor Butler’s status, I wouldn’t blame you, but I’ll hop on the Spurs. I make the Heat a small favorite in this game and I’ll play the Spurs at +1.5 for the strength of the spot.

Pick: Spurs +1.5

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