Ja Morant NBA Player Props | Grizzlies vs. Lakers Prediction, Projection

Ja Morant NBA Player Props | Grizzlies vs. Lakers Prediction, Projection article feature image
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Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies warms up before Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers.

A hand injury that caused Ja Morant a considerable amount of pain — and is likely lingering — looked to be a non-factor in Game 3 of the first round of the NBA playoffs between the Grizzlies and Lakers.

The All-NBA guard put up 45 points to go along with 13 assists and nine rebounds. But his efforts ended up futile in a 10 point loss.

Now, with Memphis on the ropes, Morant's responsibilities will only heighten — as will his sense of urgency. But is that enough to put his player props over the line for Game 4 on Monday night?

Here's what our proprietary betting models say: there's an edge on Morant's player props at BetMGM. And the prognostication isn't particularly bullish about how he'll do tonight.

The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.

Ja Morant Player Prop Prediction, Projection

The algorithms are bearish on Morant's prospects against the Lakers tonight despite the team's heavy reliance on its star player.

The market may be undervaluing the amount of lingering injury concern with Morant's hand injury. In addition, the models believe a minor regression is order regarding Morant's shooting, especially from three-point. He shot 60% from distance in Game 3 relative to a 30% clip on the season.

Morant is projected to put up 32.08 points and assists on Monday night. Meanwhile, the best price on the market for that particular line is under 36.5 (-120) at BetMGM.

This pick has a roughly 17% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 17% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 17% in expected value.

In addition, BetMGM's line at under 43.5 points, rebounds and assists also has value. Morant is projected to have 38.99 in those statistical categories, indicating another 17% betting edge.

Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.

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Doug Ziefel
Jul 19, 2024 UTC