Karl-Anthony Towns Injury Moves Timberwolves Odds for Division, NBA Title

After a charmed season where so much has gone right for them, the Minnesota Timberwolves had the rug pulled out on Thursday as the Athletic reported that All-Star forward Karl-Anthony Towns has suffered a torn meniscus and will be out indefinitely.

The duration of his absence will be determined by whether or not the tear requires surgery and if it will be a repair (which has a better long-term prognosis but a longer recovery time) or a removal (with a shorter recovery time but worse long-term prognosis).

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported, however, that Towns may not have surgery and may not miss any time.

Joel Embiid suffered a torn meniscus in late January and is also currently out indefinitely but may return this season.

If we put Towns' absence at six weeks, that's the start of the playoffs, and the required ramp-up time under those circumstances is impossible. If he has surgery to repair the tear, he'll miss the rest of the season, including the playoffs. However, as Wojnarowski reports, he may not miss significant time if it's a pain management issue.

The big problem for the Wolves without Towns is that their offense has a very low floor to begin with, and it bottoms out without Towns. The Wolves' offensive rating is 10.4 points worse without Towns on the floor, behind only Anthony Edwards among rotation players. More concerningly, the Wolves' offensive rating with Edwards on the floor and Towns off drops by seven points per 100 possessions. The defense, predictably, improves, but not enough to keep them afloat in the playoffs.

It's not that the Wolves can't compete in a postseason environment without Towns; if anything, it opens up more room for Edwards to be the very best version of himself. But the surrounding scoring weaponry isn't enough, making it easier for teams to scheme against Edwards specifically.

The Wolves moved to +450 to win the Northwest Division at FanDuel after the news, despite leading the Western Conference and having a chance in division games to clinch tiebreakers over the Thunder and Nuggets. Their conference title odds dropped to +1300 and NBA title to +3200. If Towns returns, those odds are likely long. But until a more firm timeline is known for Towns, it's best to let sleeping Wolves lie.

Towns is averaging 22 points and eight rebounds per game on 51/42/87 shooting splits this season.

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