Kings vs Heat Prediction, Picks Tonight | Wednesday, Jan. 31

Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Heat on Wednesday, Jan. 31 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Sacramento Kings and Miami Heat are two teams trending in opposite directions at the moment, but that can all change on Wednesday night in Miami, FL.

After running through a sequence of excellent defensive teams, can Miami get right against a Sacramento team that has had a hard time getting stops this season?

Let's get to our Kings vs Heat prediction and pick.

Sacramento is beginning to roll, entering play on Wednesday off the back of four consecutive wins. The Kings have won against some pretty decent teams, too. Though, it should be said none of the Mavericks, Warriors and Hawks are particularly interested in playing defense. Moreover, the Grizzlies offense is bad enough to prevent it from winning many games at all even despite Memphis' excellent defense.

This will be a much tougher test for Sacramento, which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency and has relied upon its high-octane offense to find success. The Kings stand at just 13-10 on the road, thanks to some dipping numbers on offense including a depressed 35.9% 3-point percentage — which is nearly three points off of what we see out of this team at home.

The Kings have done a decent enough job at defending the rim this year, allowing a pedestrian 66.3% of shots to fall within four feet. But, they've struggled mightily around the perimeter: Sacramento sports the second-worst mark in the league against the 3 and a 21st-ranked defense in the midrange.

That last bit about the Kings should be music to Miami's ears, considering it has been hell-bent on scoring around the perimeter this year. The Heat rank first in percentage of shots taken from the midrange and have taken a pretty high 35.5% of their shots from 3. The Heat's love for those spots on the floor have paid off, too, with some excellent numbers in both areas.

Nevertheless, this has still been an offense which ranks in the bottom third of the league and has been slumping hard over the last 10 games, sitting dead last in the NBA. They Heat have lacked the ability to score inside, so with the volatility of shooting numbers (and the inefficiency of shooting from midrange), their scoring output has been highly volatile.

Still, in a matchup like this, you have to like their chances. Miami has shot the 3 nearly four points better at home, and has seen a significant 5.5-point increase in scoring per 100 possessions in these games. The Heat may be covering in just 41.3% of their games this year, but they are 8-10 against the spread as home favorites and have gone 12-6 straight up in this spot.

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This is an excellent time to buy low on the Heat. They've played their best basketball at home this season and should have a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have struggled to defend jumpshots around the floor.

Miami may be without Duncan Robinson but it is otherwise healthy, and the reprieve it will feel after facing a murderer's row of defenses over the last five games will be real.

Going from Orlando, Memphis, Boston, New York and Phoenix to Sacramento is quite the change in pace, and as a result I expect this Heat offense to look worlds better on Wednesday. That, in combination with a bit of a dropoff for the Kings — who will trend the opposite way after facing some weak defenses — should be enough for the win.

Pick: Heat ML (-122)