Kings vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (April 5)

Kings vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (April 5) article feature image
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Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyrie Irving (left) and Luka Doncic.

Kings vs. Mavericks Odds

Kings Odds6.5
Mavericks Odds-6.5
Over/Under241.5
Time8:30 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Mavericks are on the brink. Their tragic number for elimination from postseason contention is just two. A loss here and they could be eliminated by Thursday night. Luka Doncic refuted reports he would be shut down for the season and will play as long as they're contending.

It would take a miraculous turnaround for the Mavericks, who are 4-11 with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to make the playoffs. If it's going to happen, it has to start tonight.

The Kings are sitting pretty. They've locked at least the two seed. But while they're on a back to back, not resting guys has been their M.O. this season and they have hope for the No. 2 seed and to potentially send Doncic home for the season.

Now, let's find a Kings vs. Mavericks pick.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are on a back-to-back. They haven't rested players this season as an organizational approach. With at least the No. 3 seed clinched, though, their motivation has to be lowered. The priority now is the playoffs.

An important, and bizarre, split to note with the Kings is their home/road performance. Most teams are uniformly worse on the road this year. The Kings are the No. 1 offense and the 29th, second-worst, defense at home this season. On the road, they are the second-best offense and, get this, the eighth-best defense.

That's a big reason why they are 26-13 against the spread (ATS) on the road, and why the under is 24-15 (61.5%) this season.

The Kings still play at a very fast pace, but the Mavericks play at the fourth-slowest pace at home.

On the surface, this is a mismatch. The Kings offense is unstoppable and their road defense is decent. But the line suggests some sort of indication that the Kings will rest players. If everyone's healthy, the Kings moneyline is worth a look.


Dallas Mavericks

What a mess.

The Mavericks don't have the worst defense since the All-Star break, but it's still a nightmare. The Mavericks' biggest issue is points in the paint and against Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox, that can be a bit of an issue. Sacramento has the third-best at-rim percentage in the league.

Luka Doncic has put up big numbers in between terrible defense and complaining to officials. Doncic went for 10-of-12 against his two primary defenders on the Kings this season (Harrison Barnes and Terence Davis). Expect a big game from him.

Kings-Mavericks Pick

I love all Kings road unders, but I especially love this one down to 241.

The Kings defense is better on the road, the Mavericks offense is less than it should be and the pace will be slow. If the Kings play starters, I'll lean toward betting the Kings live, but I'll wait to see what the injury report holds.

I do think Keegan Murray is able to hit his over 2.5 on 3-pointers. He's hit that in eight of his last 10. While Dallas' 3-point defense hasn't been bad, I think Murray will continue his incredible rookie season shooting.

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