Kings vs Thunder Picks, Prediction Today | Sunday, Feb. 11

Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Thunder on Sunday, Feb. 11 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Sacramento Kings face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday afternoon. All eyes will be on the Super Bowl, but that’s all the more reason to find value elsewhere in a less-saturated market.

Let's get to our Kings vs. Thunder prediction and pick.

The Kings are coming off a massive 135-106 win against the defending champs in a game where Domantas Sabonis — who dropped 17 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists on 7-of-9 shooting — legitimately outplayed reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic.

Sabonis has had an All-Star-caliber season, even if he wasn’t selected to play in the game. He’s averaging 19.8 points, 13.2 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game and his unique skillset allows him to absolutely dominate certain matchups, including against a Thunder team that lacks the necessary front-court size to keep him off the glass.

Oklahoma City recently signed veteran Bismack Biyombo to bolster its size at the center position, but in the last head-to-head meeting between Sabonis and Biyombo, the Lithuanian big man grabbed 21 boards and dished 12 assists in a 13-point triple double.

Another key to Sacramento’s success against the Thunder will be its ability to out-math them from deep. The Kings live and die by the 3. Oklahoma City ranks toward the middle of the pack in 3-point rate (17th), but Sacramento has shot just 33.1% from deep in its 21 losses this season and 40.1% in its wins. The Thunder give up a lot of 3-point opportunities on defense, but opponents shoot just 36.9% (13th), according to Cleaning the Glass.

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The Thunder find themselves staring down a potential three-game losing streak after dropping games to Utah and Dallas earlier this week. The Thunder have yet to lose three in a row this season, but have been on the brink five other times. They covered as favorites in four of those five wins and the lone ATS loss came as home favorites against the Nuggets on Jan. 31 — a game Jokic missed with injury.

However, this is a rare situation. The Kings are one of the few teams the Thunder have had trouble with in the past. In their past 10 meetings, the Kings are 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS against the Thunder. This is a somewhat misleading stat considering this iteration of the Thunder is young and players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have only played in a few of those games. However, these teams have played five times since last season and the Thunder are 0-4-1 ATS.

I like the Thunder to get their revenge and snap their losing streak tonight. The Kings are a good team, but they’ve been playing a bit above their heads this season. They have the 14th-best Adjusted Net Rating (+.9), per Dunks and Threes, but teams like the Magic (+.7) and Rockets (+.5), who are in a similar range, have notably worse records. Sacramento relies on 3-point variance, which means you never know if it will continue, but I’ll take my chances and rely on a good defensive team (the Thunder) that'll take this game personally. Under head coach Mark Daigneault, the Thunder are 90-67-7 ATS when they lost the previous head-to-head matchup, including 13-4-1 this season.

I also like Sabonis to exceed his rebounds line. The line hasn’t come out yet, but he’s averaging 15.6 per game in his past 10 and 14.5 against the Thunder since joining the Kings. Follow in the Action App (AOWatts13).

Pick: Thunder -3.5 | Domantas Sabonis Over Rebounds