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Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds, Pick & Preview: Keep Fading L.A. (March 1)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds, Pick & Preview: Keep Fading L.A. (March 1) article feature image
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Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook

  • The Lakers host the Mavericks as 3.5-point home underdogs on Tuesday night.
  • Will the Lakers bounce back after an embarrassing home loss to the Pelicans, or will their tailspin continue?
  • Joe Dellera breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Odds

Mavericks Odds -3.5
Lakers Odds +3.5
Over/Under 217
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Dallas Mavericks look to stay hot against a struggling Lakers team that is just 3-7 over their last 10 games and suffered a blowout loss to the Pelicans on Sunday night.

Can the Lakers right the ship or will the Mavericks continue their rise up the Western Conference standings?

Mavericks Finding Form After Porzingis Trade

The Mavericks reconstructed their roster when they traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. This was a surprising move but it’s worked out well so far for the Mavericks.

Since the trade, Dallas is 4-2 with a +3.8 point differential and their offense is performing better of late, scoring 120.5 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. This is something they’ve desperately needed considering their Adjusted Offensive Rating is just 17th in the league so far this season.

Their biggest difficulty has been scoring in transition. They’re only scoring 109.3 points per 100 transition plays — dead last in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.

But, their halfcourt offense has been incredible and they’re scoring 98.7 points per 100 halfcourt plays, the fifth best mark in the league. The good thing is that coach Jason Kidd knows this is where the Mavericks excel and they have the highest percentage of their plays run in the halfcourt.


Lakers Tailspin Continues

The Lakers are having a nightmare of a season and are already without Anthony Davis (ankle) for the next few weeks. They are now listing LeBron James (knee) and Austin Reeves (ankle) as questionable and probable.

If LeBron does not play, this game could actually be ugly considering the Lakers are 2.4 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

And metrics aside, he’s by far the best player on this team. The Lakers are just 6-11 this season without him and their performance drops off precipitously. He’s their floor general, and when LeBron is off the floor they score just 106.5 points per 100 possessions (18th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.

The Lakers have leaned heavily on LeBron to keep them in games, but there’s only so much the King can do. This team has just been really, really bad.

On the season, they are 20th ranked in Adjusted Net Rating (-2.0), their offense is ranked just 24th and their once formidable defense is now just 17th. They’re struggling to stay afloat in the West and their one advantage in this contest would have been their interior presence but with Davis out, the Lakers likely cannot capitalize on this in the same way.

Mavericks-Lakers Pick

This matchup pits two teams that are trending in opposite directions against each other. The Mavericks should not have much difficulty with this Lakers’ offense or defense. And the Lakers will have difficulty scoring against Dallas and their fifth-best Adjusted Defensive Rating. Dallas is a superior team right now.

While we hope we can see a nationally televised game with both Luka Doncic and LeBron James, it’s entirely possible that LeBron misses this contest.

Regardless of whether or not LeBron James plays the current line at Mavericks -3.5 is a bit short. The Lakers tend to get credit on name recognition and the fact that LeBron is on this roster.

We won’t hold them out of a conversation simply because of his greatness, but it’s impossible to back this team right now.

On the season, the Lakers are just 26-33-1 ATS and just 13-20 at home. Expect that to continue.

Pick: Mavericks -3.5

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