Mavericks vs. Suns Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: The Chris Paul Prop Bet for Wednesday’s Opener (October 19)

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds

We're here! The Association gave us a taste with a pair of tasty Tuesday matchups, but Wednesday offers a near-full slate of games to get us junkies truly hooked for 2022-23.

Among these matchups is the West Coast ESPN game, a playoff rematch between the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns, a series that gave us the phone background for every singe Suns fan in existence:

In many ways, that moment was the starting of #BadVibesSzn in Phoenix. Let's start off with a look at the road team Wednesday night, the team that made it to the Conference finals last season.

Can the Mavericks Replace Jalen Brunson?

Fresh off their deepest playoff from this iteration of the team, the Mavericks were unable to retain the player who was very often their second-best player during said playoff run last spring. Brunson is off to New York (who was going to get him by hook or by crook), and now the Mavericks will look to fill that all important secondary playmaker role with mostly internal talent.

The leading candidate is Spencer Dinwiddie, who will be joining Luka Doncic in the Mavs starting backcourt this season after mostly coming off the bench once Dallas acquired the ninth-year pro last season. Dinwiddie played well in Dallas, averaging 15.8 points and posting a 58.4% effective field goal percentage in just 28.3 minutes per game.

Dinwiddie is not your typical true playmaker type, but he can definitely create his own shot, and with shooters like Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith joining him and Luka in the starting five, it will be worth monitoring his assist numbers as the season starts.

His line is for 3.5 opening night, but the juice is a little strong to the over for my liking considering he averaged only 3.9 assists per game in Dallas last year, as well as the fact that Luka soaks up so much of the usage.

Speaking of which, we here at Action are mighty bullish on Mr. Doncic this season. He looked great at EuroBasket this offseason, and he's young enough still that hopefully that summer run has him in shape rather than burned out–something that has been far from a guarantee throughout his career.

Our own Matt Moore gave out Luka to lead the league in both points and assists at +3500, with the underlying logic being as such: Luka is going to have historic usage rates. Lost in all the Luka hype is the fact that he isn't always the most efficient shooter, nor is he even all that great when it comes to assist to turnover ratio.

I am by no means disparaging his overall impact on the game, but I do think there should be genuine attention paid to how he might handle such an incredible load this season and if it starts to wear on him during the dog days of the season.

He's the type of player who undoubtedly shows up for the big moments, but he's also the type the bettors can look to fade at times when he loses focus a bit during the lengthy regular season.

This is game one of the season, though, and one has to imagine he's going to show up at least in part to troll Booker and the Suns. So while I may be looking to fade Luka if the lines get crazy high during the middle stages of the regular season, for now I'm all set.

Can the Suns Zone Out All the Noise?

On the other side of the ball, the Phoenix Suns are just ready to start playing real basketball so they can move on from the last five months.

I'm not one to usually buy into vibes mattering all that much, these are professionals after all and we are mere suckers looking for a narrative, but also: [waves hands] all this.

There's the disappointing playoff exit. The Robert Sarver story finally coming to light and the lingering potential of his selling the team. There's Deandre Ayton signing his contract only after the team tried to get rid of him all summer. Everywhere you turn this preseason, there's another anecdote from those covering the team that it all just feels off.

And if any one player had an excuse to have reached his tipping point it might be Chris Paul. Despite Donald Sterling; Robert Sarver; playoff exits and playoff injuries; and a Sisyphean relationship with the sport of basketball as a whole, here he is for season number 18, and he still looks ready to put up numbers.

I know preseason doesn't matter, truly, but seeing him average 10.0 assists a game on just over 25 minutes a game was a reminder that this man could average double-digit assists per game at age 50 with a blindfold on.

His underlying impact may not be quite to what it once was, but from a night-to-night betting perspective, he still is giving value to bettors at age 37. His assist line at DraftKings right now is just 8.5 and it's barely juiced to the over.

As such …

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Mavericks-Sun Pick

The side and total both look pretty well hammered into shape to be honest, and that tends to happen with these games that have a long lead time on being out there like opening night or right after the All-Star Break.

I grabbed Dallas at +5.5 when it first opened but it was only a lean, and even though it has shifted only one point to +4.5, that's enough for me to look elsewhere for a best bet. And I'm landing on Paul going over on his assist total.

The books are most likely setting this number low (it's 8.5 across the board) because of Dallas' pace, but Paul averaged 13.0 assists per game last season against a similar Mavericks squad. Jason Kidd's aggressive defensive schemes can work against lots of teams, but a maestro like Paul has proven capable of picking them apart in years past.

Add in the fact that I think this will be a very close game and thus demand high minutes, plus the fact that Paul is in full, early-season health, and I like this number with even a little wiggle room.

Pick: Chris Paul over 8.5 Assists -115 (play to -145, or plus money over 9.5)