Grizzlies-Rockets Betting Odds: Clint Capela Injury News Moves Spread, Total
Photo credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Clint Capela
Betting Odds: Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets
- Spread: Rockets -4.5
- Over/Under: 207.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 4:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
Right around 12:45 p.m. ET Monday afternoon, the Houston Rockets ruled out Clint Capela for tonight’s contest against the Grizzlies. Then around 3 p.m., they announced it was a more long-term injury:
Clint Capela (thumb) to miss 4-6 weeks. https://t.co/GYowe0US5Q
— FantasyLabs NBA (@FantasyLabsNBA) January 14, 2019
The Rockets are absolutely decimated by injuries right now, with Chris Paul (hamstring) and Eric Gordon (knee) also still out. Brandon Knight (knee) is questionable after missing their last game. They’ve had to recall Isaiah Hartenstein from the G League for depth due to all the injuries.
This line opened at Rockets -7, and right before the Capela injury announcement it was sitting at -6. At that moment, we tracked a steam move, which moved the spread all the way to -4.5, which is where it currently sits (per Sports Insights):
The over/under has also moved — it’s now sitting at 207.5 after opening at 203. There’s a sharp disparity in bets vs. money on this bet tonight, as a whopping 88% of the bets are on the over while 63% of the money is on the under.
Capela has had an odd season in terms of impact on the floor. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets have actually been 6.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench vs. playing. Most of that is on offense, but it is telling that the defensive numbers haven’t been there either.
That said, the Capela news is worthy of a line move simply because of how injured the Rockets are right now. In our FantasyLabs NBA models right now, we have James Harden and P.J. Tucker projected for over 40 minutes. Austin Rivers is at 39.5, and guys like Nene, Marquese Chriss and Hartenstein will all likely have to play in the double digits. It’s not great.
Further, there were signs that Capela’s numbers could improve in 2019. The Rockets started the year playing a switch-everything defensive scheme, and it worked last season. This year, they stunk at it, but Mike D’Antoni changed their scheme to defend pick-and-rolls more traditionally, which put Capela back in the paint to grab rebounds and defend the rim.
Here’s the news blurb from our FantasyLabs NBA page:
Marquese Chriss played 11 minutes on Sunday, and he or Hartenstein will likely compete for backup center minutes if Nene starts.
All five starters played at least 30 minutes in the loss, but Nene’s minutes have usually been managed, meaning P.J. Tucker could play over 40 minutes again shifting between power forward and center.
Harden has played 103 minutes without Capela, Gordon and Chris Paul (hamstring) on the court, and he’s averaged an insane 1.88 DraftKings points per minute.
Nene costs $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He’s been capped to no more than 15 minutes most nights, but if he gets most of the minute at the 5, he should be the chalk value option.