Grizzlies vs Magic Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Saturday, March 30)

Here's everything you need to know about Grizzlies vs. Magic on Saturday, Mar. 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Orlando Magic have seen one tough-luck loss lead to another over the past week and will attempt to snap a three-game slide at home against a depleted Grizzlies team.

Memphis has won just one of its last seven games as its defense begins to lose its luster and will be in for a tough test here with many of its core players still sidelined with injuries.

Where does the value lie here? Let's get into this matchup.

There are several players that have been out for quite a while here, from Ja Morant and Marcus Smart to Vince Williams, Jr. and Yuta Watanabe. A new absence will pose some real problems here for the visitors on Saturday, however, as Desmond Bane has been ruled out with back soreness. Averaging over 34 minutes per game with one of the biggest estimated offensive impacts in the league according to Dunks and Threes, the Grizzlies will have a boar of a time filling the void left by Bane.

It's a shame, because while the Grizzlies' defense has disappeared into the abyss over the past week or so there's been some life in this offense with a pretty decent showing in a 136-124 loss to the Lakers last time out. This team has been able to knock down three-pointers at better than 35% in three of its last five, which isn't the most encouraging number in the world but one which at least shows the Grizzlies have been better than their baseline number of late.

Without the shooting prowess of Bane you'd expect things to get worse. Although, with Luke Kennard back in the lineup there's at least a chance Memphis can survive this.

Things have been brutal defensively, as we noted, but the Grizzlies can at least take solace in the fact that they've been the fourth-best team in the NBA this month at defending the rim, leaning heavily on the lone member of the starting five who remains healthy in Jaren Jackson, Jr.

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The Magic were absolutely cooking prior to their latest three-game stretch against the Kings, Warriors and Clippers. Sure, the schedule got a bit tougher after a five-game winning streak that included wins over the Pelicans, Raptors, Hornets and Nets, but Orlando entered two of those losses as slim favorites and was just a 1.5-point underdog to LA. It's warranted to call this three-game losing streak a disappointment.

What's gone wrong? Well, for one, the three-pointer hasn't been falling for the Magic. This isn't exactly a new problem, but we had seen this team come up with some solid shooting nights over that five-game winning streak and for an offense that has struggled all season long, it's been notable to see it take a step back from a pretty flat 112 efficiency rating for the season.

The bigger question here is the defense, which ranks second in the NBA for the month of March, but has allowed roughly 110 points per 100 possessions over the skid. The biggest drop-off has come at the rim, where opponents have converted on 67.5% of their looks, and continuing on with that trend of poor frontcourt play, defensive rebounds have been a particular concern as well.

The fact that Orlando's frontcourt has failed to produce lately is certainly a concern here against the Grizzlies when you consider this team is going rely heavily upon Jackson, Jr. to carry the load offensively and anchor their defense against the team which has taken the most shots at the rim per 100 possessions in the NBA.

On top of that, while the Grizzlies aren't an incredible team on the glass, their rebounding rate has improved by one point during the month of March and that's something else to note considering Orlando has allowed offensive rebounds at a 40% clip in the past two games.

With the return of Kennard, I do think the Grizzlies' shooting can at least remain at the mediocre level it's been at — we shouldn't see a totally grave situation on that end. Memphis should also green-light Jackson, Jr. for plenty of attempts down low, and with the Magic's defense within four feet of the rim cratering, there's certainly a way in for Memphis here on the road.

The Grizzlies have found a way to cover the spread in three of their last six, and while it's always a scary thought to bet on a team which is missing 80% of its starting lineup, I do think this is the spot for Memphis, which is 21-16 against the spread on the road this season and 18-14 ATS as a road underdog.

Pick: Grizzlies +13.5 (-110)

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