Timberwolves vs Jazz Odds, Picks & Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Saturday Mar. 16)

Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Jazz on Saturday, Mar. 16 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

One team's playing for something, and one…almost isn't?

And the one who isn't is on the second leg of a back-to-back – that's the Utah Jazz.

The other hasn't played since Tuesday, and they're fighting for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference — that's the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I have an idea of how this will go, but let's talk it out first.

The metrics like the Timberwolves even at times when the eye test doesn't.

And for this particular setup, there's plenty to like given the hampered opponent.

The Wolves head into this game having lost four of seven and have split their last four road games. The Wolves also have a massive rest advantage — they're 11-7-1 with a rest advantage against the spread this season, 10th in the NBA heading into Friday night's slate. The extended rest, on the surface, hasn't been awesome for the T-Wolves who are just 5-6 ATS with two or three days off between games, ninth-worst in the NBA as of this writing.

The much-lauded T-Wolves defense will be the focus for this contest, with the Jazz on back-to-back legs. Minnesota has allowed a league-low 108.8 points per 100 possesions, nearly three points fewer than second place.

They've also hit overs on 12-of-21 games as a road favorite, giving them the 10th-most overs by percentage in this scenario. However, in 11 games with two to three days rest, they've hit seven of 11 unders, fourth-most in the NBA by percentage.

The Wolves will be without Karl-Anthony Towns (meniscus) for the game. Rudy Gobert (ribs), Monte Morris (hamstring) and Kyle Anderson (shoulder) are all questionable.

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The Jazz, as home underdogs, are actually 13-7 against the spread, with the seventh-best cover rate in the NBA. As a home underdog, they've hit 11 overs in 20 contests, eight unders and a push. The percentage gives them the seventh-highest rate in the NBA hitting overs as a home dog.

With a rest disadvantage they're 6-7-1 against the spread, and they're 4-5-1 ATS with no rest — bottom half of the league in both.

As good as Minnesota profiles defensively, Utah is the opposite, allowing 120.8 points per 100 possessions, fourth-most in the league.

On the injury front, Lauri Markkanen (quadriceps), Jordan Clarkson (groin) and Kris Dunn (rest) did not play against the Hawks on Friday — all are questionable for Saturday as of this writing.

The Jazz caught a nice win against the Hawks with a 124-122 effort on Saturday. I may lean the T-Wolves to cover, but the number is fairly large and the Jazz are actually solid ATS as a home dog. What I will take, however, is the Jazz's total team under 108.5 points at -120 on DraftKings as of this morning.

The well-rested T-Wolves defense should be able to clamp down on the Jazz's back-to-back legs, assuming they don't get a sudden boost with Lauri Markkanen returning. That's not exactly expected, we just don't know yet.

Pick: Jazz Team Total Under 108.5 | Lean Timberwolves -7.5