NBA Best Bets: Our Betting Staff’s 8 Picks for Monday, Jan. 29

NBA Best Bets · Monday, Jan. 29

Monday's NBA slate is packed with 12 games on Jan. 29. Let's dig into our NBA best bets for the top showdowns today, including Clippers vs. Cavaliers, Knicks vs. Hornets and more.

Find our expert NBA betting picks and predictions below!

By Joe Dellera

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Los Angeles Clippers — one of the NBA’s best teams since the James Harden trade. One player that I’m targeting in this matchup is Jarrett Allen.

LA is excellent, but Cleveland has been the second-best defense in the NBA,  which should generate a few more misses and a few more rebounds.

The Clippers will be without Ivica Zubac who has anchored their interior defense. Without him, LA must rely on Mason Plumlee to hold down the center position. This is a great spot for Allen.

Allen has been a monster without Evan Mobley and has kicked into high gear recently. His rebounds prop is set at 10.5, and he has exceeded this number in 14 consecutive games while averaging 14.1 rebounds on 21.4 potentials per game.

Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds

By Joe Dellera

The New York Knicks suffered a significant loss with Julius Randle suffering a dislocated right shoulder. Randle's absence will open up a massive amount of Usage for the Knicks to fill.

I would expect OG Anunoby (14.7% Usage) to see a significant uptick in Usage as the Knicks look for some more creation.

Anunoby's points prop is set at 18.5. He has exceeded this number in just four of 14 games with the Knicks. Nevertheless, given the void left by Randle's absence and the bigger offensive role Anunoby had hinted at wanting in Toronto, this is an opportunity for him to shine.

Pascal Siakam is a similar comp to Randle in terms of Usage and position. In 10 games on the Raptors without Siakam last season, Anunoby averaged 22.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists. Furthermore, he exceeded this 18.5 line in seven of the 10 games while averaging 8.4 FGM on 18.2 FGA.

This matchup against a soft Hornets defense is exploitable. Whether Anunoby is creating his own shot or Brunson is finding him slashing to the rim, there will be plenty of opportunities for Anunoby to exceed his points prop.

Pick: OG Anunoby Over 18.5 Points

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By Jim Turvey

A tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.

The Utah Jazz are 17-7 since they inserted Collin Sexton into the starting lineup (returning Lauri Markkanen during this stretch has been key too). More to the point: the Jazz are taking care of the worst teams in the league. During that 24-game stretch, Utah is 8-1 against teams that currently have losing records, including six wins on the road.

The Brooklyn Nets are decidedly under .500. They are so thanks to a brutal 5-17 stretch that has sunken any hopes of lingering around the playoff picture in the East. The Nets have lost five of their last seven home games straight up, and are the exact type of team with whom Utah has had no problems since its lineup changes.

Pick: Jazz ML -110

By Bryan Fonseca

At least a few of us like the Utah Jazz to win tonight, and I like Collin Sexton to have a meaningful hand in that.

He has hit over 1.5 3s in five of his last six games and eight of his last 10 games. During the same stretch, Sexton has averaged more than 23 points while shooting 51% on five 3s per game.

The Nets are bad right now and may welcome back Ben Simmons on Monday, so we'll see how that goes — likely a minutes restriction — but I think Sexton will remain mostly unaffected.

Pick: Collin Sexton Over 1.5 3s (+115)

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By Joe Dellera

The Miami Heat made waves when they acquired Terry Rozier from the Hornets, but he and the team have struggled in his three games. Rozier has shot 10-of-33 from the field and averaged just 8.7 points per game.

One player this has impacted is Tyler Herro. Herro has passed the ball to Rozier at the highest frequency of any of his teammates during these three games, yet that has only generated one assist.

Despite that, Herro has seen an uptick in his potentials for 7.6 over the course of the entire season to 12.0 over the last three games. Still, he’s only had assist totals of 3, 6 and 3 to show for it.

Monday's matchup against the Phoenix Suns is significantly softer than the Celtics or Knicks, and I expect there to be some positive regression on these potentials — specifically ones associated with Terry Rozier.

That type of uptick from 7.6 to 12 potentials is notable, and with the influx of scoring talent in Rozier, I expect that this is schematic and not just noise.

I like Herro to find a few more conversions and exceed his 3.5 assists prop.

Pick: Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Assists

By Jim Turvey

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are starting to make a little noise, and it's basically all thanks to the tall Frenchman. With Wemby now playing center, as his minutes load has increased, the Spurs have now covered in five of their last six games. They have even won half of those six games straight up, highlighted by a win over the previously conference-leading Minnesota Timberwolves.

Gregg Popovich also secretly has a button he can start pressing more often, should he wish to do so. The five-man lineup for San Antonio that includes its five best players (Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Victor Wembanyama) has a mind-melting +32.8 net rating in 60 minutes. Considering the team as a whole has a -8.4 net rating, that is SHOCKING.

If the Spurs want to start winning games, playing that lineup more frequently is a relatively easy way to do so. Now, the question becomes whether they actually want to or not.

Luckily San Antonio's opponent on Monday has no qualms about losing, either. In fact, the Spurs beat the Wizards in Washington just over a week ago.

I'd play this to Spurs -5; but early money is actually on Washington, so bettors can wait.

Pick: Spurs -3.5

By Bryan Fonseca

Luke Kennard sat in last night's Memphis game with a knee injury, but I'll take this over if he plays tonight.

Kennard has gone over 13.5 points in four straight games and in five of six. As I've iterated previously, Memphis is in "somebody gotta get these buckets" territory.

Kennard is shooting 47% from the field and 46.5% from 3 since returning from injury in December. He's only at about nine field goal attempts per game since and is closing in on seven 3-point attempts per contest as well.

Pick: Luke Kennard Over 13.5 Points (-125)

By Jim Turvey

Denver's dominant home court is a known factor, but a sneakier trend is the fast start they get off to at Ball Arena.

The Nuggets are 16-6 at home against the spread in the first quarter this season, making them the second-best team in that split. It makes sense given Jokic's heavy minutes load typically in the first quarter, along with Denver's dominance at home in general.

Tonight, Denver draws the Milwaukee Bucks, who are at the other side of the spectrum. At 5-15 ATS in the first quarter when on the road this season, they are the second-worst team in that split.

This game will also be the debut of head coach Doc Rivers, so if there is any sort of adjustment period whatsoever, it's going to be coming in arguably the toughest environment to do so in the NBA.

I'd play this to any number the books will reasonably post.

Pick: Nuggets 1Q -0.5