NBA Best Bets Tonight | Expert Picks for Monday, February 26

NBA Best Bets Tonight | Expert Picks for Monday, February 26 article feature image

Keegan Murray #13 of the Sacramento Kings shoots a three-point shot against the San Antonio Spurs in the third quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

NBA Best Bets Tonight | Monday, Feb. 26

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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Pistons vs. Knicks

Monday, Feb. 26
7:30 PM ET
League Pass
Jaden Ivey over 13.5 Points

By Joe Dellera

This prop is too low for Jaden Ivey who is getting a greater opportunity as the Pistons season is winding to a close.

Ivey has averaged 15.1 points per game this season, but his minutes and role have regulated a bit more of late. When Ivey has played 20+ minutes, he has exceeded 13.5 points in 21/30 games while averaging 18.1 points per game.

We are getting a buy low opportunity here after he scored just 8 against Orlando and now he has a tough matchup against a strong Knicks’ defense.

Except this is not the same Knicks’ defense that we have seen beat teams down all season. With all of their injuries, the Knicks have the fourth-worst Defensive Rating over the last two weeks and are allowing 125.4 points per 100 possessions. With a less than 100% Hartenstein they have been extremely susceptible to drives and cuts to the rim, which is an area where Ivey can excel while also making some 3s, a shot the Knicks allow with regularity.

This is a strong spot for Ivey, and I expect him to exceed 13.5 points and am fine with 14.5 as well.

Pick: Jaden Ivey over 13.5 Points

Heat vs. Kings

Monday, Feb. 26
10 PM ET
Kings -7

By Chris Baker

The Heat have won three straight games against top-10 teams on the backs of their defense as they rank 2nd in defensive rating (106.0) during the month of February. Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic will be out for this one due to suspension. Jovic and Butler have been their most impactful players in terms of on/off differential as Jovic has an elite (+12.5) net-rating swing and Butler is at (+7.2). With Butler off the court this year the Heat have a poor net-rating of -3.7. Tyler Herro is also questionable while Josh Richardson and Terry Rozier remain out with injuries.

The Kings have also been in elite form winning three straight games with two of those wins coming against championship contenders in the Clippers and Nuggets. This is a back to back for them but there is no travel concerns as they are going from Los Angeles to Sacramento. The Kings offense also matches up well here as the Heat defense allow the third highest three point attempt rate (39.5%) in the league. Kings at -7 is a play for me and not sure why this line isn’t closer to -8.5 or -9 given the Butler absence.

Pick: Kings -7

Heat vs. Kings

Monday, Feb. 26
10 PM ET
Keegan Murray over 13.5 Points and 20+

By Joe Dellera

Keegan Murray has one of the wildest home and road splits in the NBA. On the road he averages just 12.1 points per game while shooting just 42.6% from the field and 28.7% from 3. At home? This spikes to 18.0 points per game on 49.8% shooting including 42.4% from deep.

Luckily for the Kings, this is a home game against the Miami Heat.

Miami will be without a number of players tonight headlined by Jimmy Butler, but stylistically they have been a strong matchup for Murray due to all of the zone they play and that they allow the third-highest frequency of 3 point attempts.

In 3 games against Miami, he’s scored 33, 7, and 22 points with the 33 point effort being the most recent.

His points prop is set at 13.5, a number he’s exceeded in 70% of home games this season and even his 20+ prop is worth a shot considering it’s priced at (+470) which has a 17.5% implied odds, yet he has 20+ in 39% of home games (9/23).

I like Murray to exceed 13.5 Points tonight.

Pick: Keegan Murray over 13.5 Points and 20+

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Nick Sterling
Apr 17, 2024 UTC