NBA Betting Market Report (Tuesday, Nov. 26): Line Movement, Sharp Action on Clippers-Mavericks, Wizards-Nuggets
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
You might be familiar with Action Network through our content, but we also provide a host of tools for bettors, season-long fantasy players and DFS fanatics. One I want to highlight in this piece is Sports Insights’ live odds page, which allows you to see real-time odds movement and how lines are moving.
As a bettor, it’s not only interesting but important to note where sharp money is coming in on a game. Sometimes a team will get 70% of the spread bets, but the line will actually move drastically in the favor of the other team.
Aligning yourself on the side of smart bettors — or just making sure you’re not consistently on the square side — can be invaluable for those looking to step up their betting game.
In this piece, I’ll walk through both NBA games on the schedule tonight and show how to use the Sports Insights tools to analyze line movement and why the movement has occurred. For reference, here are a few phrases I’ll use, if you aren’t familiar with them:
- Steam move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. Steam is the result of a sudden overload of money placed at multiple sportsbooks and, in most cases, occurs due to betting groups, betting syndicates and a few key players with the resources to “get down heavily” at multiple locations, all at once.
- Reverse line movement: Betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages
Odds as of Tuesday evening.
Clippers at Mavericks
- Spread: Clippers -1.5
- Over/Under: 227
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA TV
Luka vs. Kawhi and PG. What a game.
The handle on this game is already quite large, and bettors seem to be very split on these teams, at least in terms of the spread: 51% of the bets are on the Clippers, who are getting 55% of the money. Very even.
There was a steam move right when the lines opened yesterday on Mavericks +2.5, which moved the line to +2 for the remainder of the evening. But overnight there was a steam move on Clippers -2, which moved the line back to -2.5 to start the day.
There was another steam move on the Clippers but since we’ve seen three straight on the Mavericks at +2.5 (twice) and +2. It seems bettors are very divided on tonight’s marquee matchup.
The over/under hasn’t seen any steam moves — just two reverse line moves, both on the under.
It is notable that the total has moved down despite over 75% of the bets and money on the over.
Remember that all of this information is available live for Sports Insights users and can be a big benefit to bettors, especially those wanting to know where sharp money is trending and why a line has moved.
Steam moves tracked: Mavs +2.5, Clippers -2, Clippers -2, Mavs +2.5, Mavs +2.5, Mavs +2
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Wizards at Nuggets
- Spread: Nuggets -10.5
- Over/Under: 227.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: League Pass
There was a steam move on the Wizards at +10.5 when the odds were first released yesterday. That pushed it to +9 briefly before eventually settling in at 9.5, which is where it opened this morning.
Earlier this morning, we tracked two steam moves on the Nuggets at -9.5, which pushed the line up to 10.5, where it sat most of the afternoon. Bettors finally bought back the Wizards at +10.5 a short time ago, which will likely push this back down to 10 or lower.
The Wizards have been an over machine of late, and that matches the one steam move we’ve tracked so far today: over 226. The under is getting 57% of the bets and 49% of the money, so things are pretty evenly split.
Steam moves tracked: Wizards +10.5, Nuggets -9.5, Nuggets -9.5, Wizards +10.5, Over 226
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]