NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions: Our 4 Favorite Saturday Bets (Jan. 16)

NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions: Our 4 Favorite Saturday Bets (Jan. 16) article feature image

The NBA rolls on Saturday with a seven-game slate. The league is dealing with all sorts of issues from COVID-19, so lines are moving rapidly on player news.

Get ahead of the betting market with our NBA Insiders Tool as news develops, and check out our best bets as of noon ET below.

NBA Odds & Picks

 

Click on a pick to game ahead
Spurs vs. Rockets
5 p.m. ET
Magic vs. Nets
6 p.m. ET
Heat vs. Pistons
7 p.m. ET
Hawks-Blazers
10 p.m. ET

Spurs vs. Rockets

Pick
Over 217
Bet Now
Tipoff
5 p.m. ET
TV
League Pass

Editor’s Note: Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo are out so this is no longer a play at 217.

Raheem Palmer: These two teams played the other day with this total opening 221 and closing 219.5 and we’ve seen a two point adjustment to the total down to 217.5 despite the return of Eric Gordon and possibly the addition of Victor Oladipo and Rodions Kurucs.

I was on the under in Thursday’s game and the Spurs shot just 9-of-31 from behind the arc, well under expectation considering their season average is 37.8%, 12th among NBA teams. The Rockets rank just 21st in Defensive Rating, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions so the 105 points the Spurs put up feels like an aberration as opposed to something we should typically expect.

Without James Harden in the lineup, the Rockets typically play at a faster pace and I think that could continue here with the return of Eric Gordon. I’ll take the over 217.5 in this game, betting that this total was likely adjusted down too low after what we witnessed the other day.

Editor’s Note: Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo are out so this is no longer a play at 217.

Bet the over now at FanDuel.

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Magic vs. Nets

Pick
Under 226.5
Bet Now
Tipoff
6 p.m. ET
TV
League Pass

Joe Dellera: The Magic take on the new look Brooklyn Nets today with James Harden looking to make his Nets’ debut. One thing that we know about this Nets team is that they lost one of their best defensive players in Jarrett Allen, and an electric scorer in Caris LeVert and replaced them with James Harden.

James Harden is electric, but he’s been notorious for slowing down his team’s PACE in minutes where he’s been in on the court. Last season, in minutes where Harden was on the Court, the Rockets played at their slowest Pace, per NBA Advanced Stats.

I expect this Nets team to have a little bit of difficulty gelling together right off the bat as they learn each other’s tendencies. The Magic are the 11th ranked team in defensive rating this season but just 23rd in Offensive Rating. The Magic also play slow, the 26th slowest Pace in the league (98.99).

The Magic should hold Brooklyn to a lower total in their first game together while not being explosive on offense enough themselves to push this total higher.

I don’t want to bet against Harden and Durant in general, but I do want to bet against their chemistry on the court in their first game together.

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Heat vs. Pistons

Pick
Heat ML
Bet Now
Tipoff
7 p.m. ET
TV
League Pass

Brandon Anderson: Father, forgive me, for I have sinned. I actually thought the Pistons might be decent and compete for the playoffs.

I’m not sure what I was thinking. Detroit is 2-9, the worst record in the entire NBA. The Pistons are bad at offense. They’re bad at defense. They’re bad at being entertaining or watchable or anything resembling basketball. They’re just bad.

And that’s even with a pretty shocking start to the season from new Detroit addition, Jerami Grant, who is playing great even next to the corpse of Blake Griffin and whatever guards the Pistons throw out there at any given time.

The Pistons begin a pair of games against the Heat here, and Miami is a walking image of the mess that the NBA is right now. Jimmy Butler will not play as he remains in the health and safety protocols. Bam Adebayo is questionable for the same reason. So are Goran Dragic, Mo Harkless, and Kendrick Nunn. Avery Bradley and Meyers Leonard are out with normal injuries. Tyler Herro is questionable with a neck injury that kept him out late last game. So, uhh… who exactly is playing for Miami?

Well, Duncan Robinson will be out there gunning threes. Kelly Olynyk will play. He’s third on the Heat in minutes this season and has actually played well. Rookie Precious Achiuwa will soak up big minutes again. Andre Iguodala is available. From there, it could be guys buried down the bench, or maybe we’ll get lucky and get Adebayo, Dragic, Harkless, or Nunn back here.

Even so, I like the Heat. This is flat out a bet on Miami Heat team culture. It’s a bet on Erik Spoelstra getting his guys ready for a game they really ought to win and a bet on the Heat using these two Pistons games to get back to 6-6 after a nightmare start. Maybe Duncan Robinson gets hot and does it on his own. Maybe Achiuwa has a breakout game. Maybe we get Bam and others back and end up with a bargain price on this line. Maybe the Pistons just aren’t good enough.

Either way, I’ll play the Heat. I grabbed this one last night while Miami was an underdog, and they’re a slight favorite now so I’d just eat the juice and play the moneyline. It’s good news that the line is moving Miami’s direction since it may mean some of these Heat players are coming back. Bring the Heat.

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Hawks at Blazers

Pick
Under 234.5
Bet Now
Tipoff
10 p.m. ET
TV
League Pass

Matt Moore: Normally I’d just be taking the Hawks’ second quarter spread here (and trust me, I’ve bet it at a smaller amount), but there are some weird circumstances here that warrant further discussion.

First, Jusuf Nurkic’s absence surely hurts the Blazers. He’s big, imposing, a great rebounder, etc. The Blazers’ defense was five points better per 100 possessions with Nurkic on the floor. But the Blazers’ defense was still giving up an abnormally high 109.8 points per 100 possessions with Nurkic on the floor.

The reason those numbers were better was because Enes Kanter is a defensive sieve. Now, with him now likely starting, you’d think that would be a bad thing. But playing Kanter with the starters means that he at least has Robert Covington and Rodney Hood or Gary Trent Jr. with him.

Typically Kanter plays next to Carmelo Anthony, and in those minutes, the defense gets absolutely obliterated. So putting Kanter with the starters might make the second unit’s defense a tad bit better.

Then there’s the Hawks. Atlanta started off red hot but has cooled significantly; they’ve scored over 110 just once in their past six games, and under 100 in three of those six. Under 100, in today’s NBA!

Atlanta is still short-handed, on a back to back, and Trae Young is in a shooting slump.

Finally, the over is 1-4 in Hawks games where the total is greater than 230. Under for me.

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