NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Back Bam Adebayo, Jamal Murray in Nuggets vs Heat (June 9)

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Nuggets vs.

Heat

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo, Jamal Murray

The Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets on Friday night in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Bam Adebayo (55% opening tip win rate) will face off against Nikola Jokic (48% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Adebayo has won four of seven opening tips versus Jokic over the past two seasons.

Miami has scored first in three of the five games between these teams this season. Max Strus (twice) and Adebayo have scored first baskets for the Heat while Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have cashed first-basket tickets for the Nuggets.

Both teams have struggled on early possessions in the postseason with both the Nuggets and Heat scoring first in just 39% of games. During this series, the teams have combined to average 2.3 shot attempts before the first basket has been made.

I think Adebayo wins the tip in Game 4, but the inefficiency on early possessions makes it difficult to determine which team will score first. I like the odds for both Adebayo and Murray, which gives us a player from each team.

Pick: Adebayo First Basket (+650) | Risk 0.4 Units, Play to +500

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Pick: Murray First Basket (+650) | Risk 0.4 Units, Play to +500

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Nuggets vs. Heat First Basket Prop Data

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