NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Back Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson in Knicks vs Heat (May 6)

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New York Knicks vs.

Miami Heat

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson

The Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat shifts back to Florida on Saturday afternoon. Mitchell Robinson (63% opening tip win rate) will jump against Bam Adebayo (56% win rate) for the opening tip-off.  These centers split opening tip-offs this season, each winning three.

Jalen Brunson and Jimmy Butler are both questionable for this matchup with injured ankles, though it sounds like both will attempt to play.

In the six games between these teams this season, each team has cashed three first basket tickets. Butler, Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent have hit for Miami, while Julius Randle, Robinson and Brunson have converted for the Knicks.

During the regular season, the Knicks were much more efficient in early possessions, scoring the first basket in 56% of their games. Meanwhile, the Heat scored first in just 38% of their games.

Randle and Brunson, in games they started, combined to take 70% of the Knicks' first-shot attempts. Collectively, they combined to score the first team field goal 47 times this season.

There isn't much of a tip-off advantage for either center, but given the statistics above, I like Brunson and Randle to get early shots, so I'll take them both for a first basket.

The Pick:

Pick: Julius Randle (+600) | Risk 0.5 Units, Play to +450

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Pick: Jalen Brunson (+490) | Risk 0.5 Units, Play to +400

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Knicks vs. Heat First Basket Prop Data

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