NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez in Bucks vs. Pacers (January 27)

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Bucks vs.

Pacers

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Milwaukee Bucks make the short trip to Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers Friday night. The Pacers are playing their third game in four days and have three players listed as questionable for tonight: Myles Turner, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard.

Brook Lopez (72% opening tip win rate) will face off on the opening tip against either Turner (41% win rate) or Isaiah Jackson (20% win rate) depending on who starts. I would expect the Bucks to win the opening tip-off in either scenario.

In terms of scoring first this season, these two teams are on the opposite ends of the spectrum. The Bucks score first in 65% of games (second-best in the NBA) while the Pacers score first in just 32% of games (second-worst in the NBA).

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The Pacers allow opposing centers and small forwards to score first in 52% of games. These two teams played on Jan. 16, with Pat Connaughton taking the first shot and missing, and Grayson Allen cashing the first basket. Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in that game.

Regardless of whether Turner suits up tonight, I like Lopez or Antetokounmpo to score first tonight. The Pacers don't really have any defender who match up well with either of those two and the Bucks should be able to penetrate the paint and make a basket.

Given the large discrepancy in first score success rate, I'll risk a bit more than normal on this tonight.

Pick: Lopez +850 (play down to +650, 0.5 units)

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Pick: Antetokounmpo +340 (play down to +285, 0.75 units)

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Bucks vs. Pacers First Basket Prop Data

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