NBA First Basket Prop: Pick Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic in Heat vs Nuggets

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Heat vs.

Nuggets

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray

Game 1 of the NBA Finals kicks off Thursday night with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Miami Heat. Nikola Jokic (48% opening tip win rate) will jump against Bam Adebayo (55% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Over the past two seasons, these two centers have split opening tip-offs, each winning two of four.

In two games this season, each team scored the first basket once. Max Strus scored first for the Heat and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored first for the Nuggets.

Looking at recent trends over the past 20 games, Jokic has won the tip in 65% of games and the Nuggets have scored first in 45% of games. Meanwhile, Adebayo has won the tip in 45% of games and the Heat have scored first in 35% of games.

In the playoffs, Jamal Murray has taken Denver's first shot attempt in 40% of games and has scored the Nuggets first basket in 27% of games. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than Murray's regular-season performance.

For the Heat, Adebayo has taken the team's first shot attempt in 35% of games during the playoffs and has scored their first basket in 30% of games — both numbers similar to his regular-season performance.

I like the Nuggets to score first in this one. Jokic took Denver's first shot attempt in each of the regular-season matchups. I'll take Jokic and pair him with Murray given the trends noted above.

DraftKings Pick: Nikola Jokic 1st Field Goal (+425) | Risk 0.6 Units, Play to +360

FanDuel Pick: Jamal Murray 1st Basket (+650) | Risk 0.4 Units, Play to +500

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Heat vs. Nuggets First Basket Prop Data

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