NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Value on Rudy Gobert in Jazz vs. Timberwolves (October 21)

Rudy Gobert

The Minnesota Timberwolves face the Utah Jazz on Friday night in what could be considered a revenge game for both Rudy Gobert and Jarred Vanderbilt, as they were traded for each other over the offseason.

Karl-Anthony Towns (47% opening-tip win rate) or Gobert (64% opening-tip win rate) will be taking on Kelly Olynyk in the opening tip-off. Olynyk has only jumped the opening tip once over the past two seasons, but he did win it.
The Timberwolves scored first last season about 55% of the time, while the Jazz scored first about 49% of the time. The Jazz traded away four of their five starters over the offseason, so I expect the Jazz will likely regress this season.

I think Minnesota will control the tip and score first in this one. Towns and D’Angelo Russell each took the first shot about 30% of the time last season and Anthony Edwards took the first shot 22% of the time. Obviously, the addition of Gobert will impact those numbers this season. In the first game of the season, Gobert took the first two attempts and scored first for the Timberwolves.

Last season, when Gobert was with the Jazz, he scored the first team field goal 19% of the time and scored the game’s first field goal 14% of the time. Those numbers don’t jump off the page here, but I think Gobert will be extra motivated as this is his first game against his former team.

I’m playing Gobert first basket which is listed at +650 on FanDuel. I would play this one down to +500 as I think it is currently undervalued.

Pick: Rudy Gobert First Basket (+650)

Jazz vs. Timberwolves First Basket Data