NBA Futures: Updated Outlook on Win Totals, Division Bets

With the in-season tournament wrapped, and the NBA season having officially passed the quarter mark for every team, it’s a great time to zoom out and take a look at some in-season futures. 

Championship odds and awards talk get so much attention, but there are two lesser discussed markets (win totals and divisions) that don’t get nearly the same coverage, so let’s dive in to see what value can be found at this moment in the 2023-24 season.

Win Totals

This is my favorite bet of the entire article, and it’s one of my favorite bets I’ve seen in a while. Let’s walk through the reasons.

Current Play

The Jazz are currently 7-16 on the season, which would project out to 25 wins over the course of a full season. Even that number alone gives plenty of leeway, but that number is actually incredibly flattering. If we go by adjusted net rating, they are at -6.7, which projects out to a 23-win team.

However, even that number is flattering. In the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass, they have a -21.0 ([!) point differential in non-garbage time minutes, last in the league and such a bad number that it kind of breaks full-season projection systems.

Motivation

Now, that may seem harsh to pick the last two weeks when they have had health issues arise, most notably in the form of Lauri Markkanen missing the last eight games. Markkanen is by far the Jazz’s best player and he has been out with a hamstring strain.

However, the question quickly becomes: How bad do the Jazz actually want him to return?

The Jazz, you will remember, retain their pick only if it is in the top 10. Now, they likely could land there even if they returned Lauri to the lineup when he’s ready, but in a Western Conference where they are already basically buried, what motivation do they really have? 

Danny Ainge has shown he is willing to move pieces off this team to collect assets, and that likely will again be the case in 2023-24. This team was 27-28 when they dealt Mike Conley last season, but they were fine falling out of the playoff race that they were actually semi-in to finish with a better draft pick, thanks to losses in 14 of their final 20. 

Add it all together, and this is a seven-unit play for me. I know that number is not feasible for bettors for either bankroll management or book limit reasons, but I give it out as the scale for how much I love this play.

Ok, we won’t go as in depth on all these as that Jazz play, but I do love this Suns number as well. This is a bit of doubling down on pre-season doubt of the Suns, so if you already have a lot of Fading Suns stock from before the season, you may need less here. 

However, the Suns “Big Three” very much needs those quotation marks still. For one, they still have yet to log an actual minute of play together this season (supposedly tonight’s the night… I’ve heard that before), but also, I’m just not sold on Bradley Beal being the same player we think of him as after all these injuries.

And really, that’s the biggest thing. The ceiling on this team is up for debate—that offense may well look outstanding when all three are on—but they just aren’t going to force it to have them all play in the regular season. Basketball-reference’s playoff probabilities currently has them projected for just 41.3 (!!) wins this season, and while that’s probably a touch low since Beal should play a bit more moving forward, I don’t have them a whole lot higher.

This number is a lot crazier than it seems. At 16-7, the Magic have already banked wins galore, so much so that if they were to merely play .500 basketball the rest of the season, they would finish with 45.5 wins. 

They have shown themselves to be a better than .500 team so far (albeit not a .700 team, but we don’t need anything close to that), and that has even been including injuries to two starters in Wendell Carter Jr. and Markelle Fultz who should be back before too long and should at least help their depth.

The juice on this one is annoying, so if you could find 44.5 out there around -105 to -110, I’d much prefer that, but I’d drink the juice if needed. You could also try to wait until after Friday’s potential loss in Boston to see if it drops a little. In fact, their upcoming schedule in general is tough, so waiting a touch probably won't hurt.

I’ll be honest with you all, I hopped on this one last night before the Kings game, a game in which I really liked the Nets, only to see them get dropped by a baker’s dozen. Well, now you get a better number!

I’m still quite high on these Nets, but this bet is definitely a tier below the Jazz bet and even the Suns and Magic bets. 

The Nets over comes down to the fact that they have actually been really strong to start the season. Basketball-reference has them projected for 46 wins, while their adjusted net rating from Dunks and Threes projects out to 44 wins. 

There’s a bit more of a floor to this bet because the Nets aren’t necessarily hyper motivated to buy at the trade deadline, and indeed could be sellers. But with the start they’ve gotten off to—and with the seeming sustainability to the success on top of that—them standing still (neither buying nor selling) at the deadline seems most likely, and as long as Mikal Bridges stays healthy (which he has been able to to a historic level in his career so far), they should be able to clear this super low number.

They do, however, have a similarly tough upcoming schedule, so if you want to time it perfectly, make sure to check out their schedule (potentially after their Dec. 16 game).

Division Bets

It’s extremely easy to forget divisions even exist in the NBA, but they’re a fun way to combine teams you are high on and teams you are low on in a pseudo-parlay.

The Pacific is a perfect example of that. I laid out above why I am low on the Suns, and on this week’s Buckets episode, Matt Moore and myself talked through our Kings skepticism. I have lonnnng been low on the Lakers (I am coming around on their ceiling, but I still think their regular season floor is quite low).

The Warriors are the funky team here, and part of me doesn’t hate a division bet on them too (bettors can get +600 out there). They have the ninth-best adjusted net rating, per dunks and threes this season, and Basketball-Reference has them projected at 44 wins, only one behind the Clippers. However, I can’t shake what my eyes are telling me, which is that this team is quietly trash and that Matt Moore’s To Miss the Playoffs bet is almost a better one for this team.   

The Clippers, on the other hand, seem to have turned a corner a bit. Their post-Harden starting five has a +12.8 net rating in now 200 minutes together, and they have somewhat quietly won nine of their last 12.  

As always with the Clippers, I like to bet them in ways that highlight their ceiling instead of risking their floor. It’s the Clippers, the bottom could entirely fall out tomorrow. That’s why I’m targeting their ceiling with the division bet, compared to their win total, which pays off far less but brings in way more of a floor needed. 

Ok, one fun longshot before you hit the road. The Pacers are definitely not as good as the Bucks, but the vibes in Milwaukee are still weird, and they’re lucky to be 16-7 (having Dame in the clutch helps teams be “lucky” of course).

The Pacers have had a bit of luck to be 13-8, themselves, but by Basketball-Reference, they have a 34.1 percent chance at the division, a massive difference from the 9.1 percent implied of this +1000 number. This is simply too long a number, plus it’s a hellaciously fun bet to ride with these fun and gun Pacers, with Hali at the head each night. 

Bets to Make

Jazz under 29.5 wins +100 FanDuel 

Suns under 49.5 wins -108 FanDuel 

Magic over 43.5 wins -134 FanDuel 

Nets over 38.5 wins -118 FanDuel

Clippers win division +550 BetMGM

Pacers win division +1000 PointsBet