The two best teams in the league get set to lock horns as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. San Antonio finished just two games behind OKC for the best overall record, but the visitors should have plenty of confidence after winning four of the five head-to-head games this season.
Interestingly, Spurs center Victor Wembanyama wasn't even available for one of those games, and he came off the bench in two others. Thus, this series should be far from straightforward for a Thunder team that has yet to taste defeat in these playoffs.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks for Spurs vs Thunder Game 1
- 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+358)
- Rebounds Leader: Chet Holmgren (+526) / Isaiah Hartenstein (+453)
Thunder vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie
The 3-point leader market might be the most intriguing of them all because it offers the most value, given multiple contenders with a legitimate claim to finish with the game-high. San Antonio has two excellent 3-point specialists in Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell, with both shooting around 38% on the year.
However, Vassell (+425) has really struggled during these playoffs, shooting just 30.4% from long range. In comparison, Champagnie is at 45.2% and shot 55% in the series against the Timberwolves.
Champagnie (+358) is the current favorite in the market, and my model simulation gives him a 36.3% chance to finish with the most 3-pointers, which is almost double his implied value of 18.3%.
In other words, Champagnie's odds should be closer to +200 when we factor in Vassell's recent struggles.
One of the more interesting things about the Spurs is that both Champagnie and Vassell attempt at least six 3-pointers per game, while OKC is more likely to spread its volume around the team.
This finding adds further credence to the idea that we should focus our attention on targeting Spurs players, with Champagnie giving us our best chance for a winning ticket.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+358)
Thunder vs Spurs Rebounds Leader: Chet Holmgren / Isaiah Hartenstein
Wembanyama's dominance in the rebounding market makes him a target we should look to fade. With odds of -246, the Spurs center has implied odds of 63.2%, whereas my model gives him closer to a 53.8% chance to finish with the most rebounds.
If we convert that percentage to A moneyline, Wembanyama's odds should be around -115.
It's worth noting that the Thunder have a two-headed monster in seven-footers Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, who could rival Wembanyama as the top rebounder.
Hartenstein and Holmgren are averaging around nine rebounds, and both have a standard deviation (σ) that's close to 3.0, meaning the potential exists for them to have some spikes in their game, which would take them ahead of Wembanyama in this rebounding category.
With each player's odds around 5-to-1, we could do a lot worse than splitting our action between them. At +453, Hartenstein wins 23.2% of my simulations, while Holmgren (+526) isn't too far behind at 18%.
Both players are considerably better options than backing Wembanyama at an inflated price.
Pick: Rebounds Leader: Chet Holmgren (+526) / Isaiah Hartenstein (+453)
