You can't utter two better words in professional sports than a Game 7, as the Pistons get set to host the Cavaliers with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line. It has been back and forth in this series with Detroit winning the first two games before Cleveland rattling off victories in the next three.
The Pistons then won Game 6 convincingly with a dominant 115-94 performance. It's worth noting that all three of Detroit's victories in this series have been by double-digits.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks for Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 7
- 3-Point Leader: Duncan Robinson (+575)
- Rebounds Leader: Jalen Duren (+201)
Pistons vs Cavaliers 3-Point Leader: Duncan Robinson
The Pistons have been the better team in this series, given their Net Rating of +4.5 against the Cavs. At home during the playoffs, Detroit's Net Rating improves to +8.1.
While the Cavaliers won Game 5 on the road, they had to rally from a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter and trailed by as many as 15 points in the first half.
It's worth noting that the Pistons were down a starter, as Duncan Robinson missed the game with a sore lower back.
Robinson is averaging 13.8 points in the series while shooting 57.6% (19-for-33) from beyond the arc.
The Pistons forward has been almost automatic from the perimeter, attempting 6.6 3-pointers per game against Cleveland.
Robinson returned for Game 6, sinking four 3-pointers, and would've finished with the game-high if not for teammate Cade Cunningham and his 5-of-10 performance.
However, Cunningham (+434) is a career 34% 3-point shooter compared to Robinson, who is remarkably better at 39.9%.
If we turn to the Cavaliers, their big hitters haven't particularly shot well from distance on the road in this series. Donovan Mitchell, the favorite at +276, is shooting just 25.9% (7-for-27), while James Harden (+460) has struggled even more at 19% (4-for-21).
Those poor performances have allowed Max Strus (+498) to fill some of the void, shooting an 11-for-22 (50%) away from home against Detroit.
Strus can run a bit cold at times, considering he recorded just one 3-pointer in three of the games against Detroit, and he's coming off a 2-for-7 effort in Game 6.
Thus, when you put it all together, Robinson looks like our best option, given his +575 odds for a player whose underlying numbers suggest he is the best 3-point shooter in the series.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Duncan Robinson (+575)
Pistons vs Cavaliers Rebounds Leader: Jalen Duren
The market for most rebounds is the most lopsided of any of the leader categories because Detroit's Jalen Duren (+201) and Cleveland's Jarrett Allen (+434) completely dominate our simulations, accounting for 77.8% of all wins due to their blended rebounding averages of 10.4 (Duren) and 10.1 (Allen).
Both numbers seem to dominate Cleveland's Evan Mobley, who we simulate at a blended average of 8.7 rebounds. Yet, DraftKings is pricing this market as almost a three-way race, with Mobley at +273 as the second favorite.
Mobley's standard deviation (σ) from the mean has a value of 1.6—meaning that he consistently puts up seven to nine rebounds in our simulation. However, those numbers don't quite offer enough variance to beat out Duren and Allen on a nightly basis.
Mobley wins just 9.3% of the time in our simulation, yet has an implied book value of 22.5%. Allen's book value is 15.7%, while Duren has the highest true odds at 27.9%.
Duren posted 11 rebounds in Game 6 and had 12 and 10 in the first two games of the series.
I'm not expecting much of a deviation in Game 7 as my model favors the Pistons as the better team in this matchup.
When you factor in Detroit's homecourt edge, look for Duren to put forth another spirited effort on the glass.
Pick: Rebounds Leader: Jalen Duren (+201)
