The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-3) and Detroit Pistons (3-3) will square off in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The game will stream live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Pistons are 4.5-point favorites over the Cavaliers on the spread (Pistons -4.5), with the over/under set at 206.5 total points. Detroit is a -180 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is priced at +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Game 7 of their second-round playoff series on Sunday, May 17.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Prediction
- Cavaliers vs Pistons pick: First Quarter Under 50.5 Points (-105)
My Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 7 best bet is on the first quarter to stay under 50.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Odds for Game 7
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 206.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 206.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
Cavaliers vs Pistons NBA Playoffs Game 7 Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview, Analysis
Historically, this was easy. From 2003 to 2019, home teams went 41-16 SU and 31-26 (56%) ATS in Game 7s. It was pretty automatic: take the home team. Of the 40 teams that won as a home favorite, 75% of them covered the spread.
Then, the Bubble happened, alongside the expansion of legalized sports betting and a general decline in home-court advantage. Since the Bubble, home teams are a dead-even 9-10 SU and ATS in Game 7s.
There’s also this: home teams are only 10-15 ATS in Game 7s after Round 1 since 2003, and an ugly 4-7 SU and 2-8 ATS since 2020.
So, the trends tend to say to back the Cavaliers here. Furthermore, home favorites who had to win on the road to force a Game 7 are 16-9 SU and 15-10 ATS (going 4-4 SU and ATS since 2020, which at least keeps them from dipping below .500).
The Cavs had to crawl out of a 3-2 hole, go on the road, and force a Game 7. The narrative play here is what usually breaks teams in the Cavs’ position: you won three in a row, had them on the ropes, and couldn’t finish the job.
The Cavs have only won one road game in the playoffs, and Game 5 featured a big Pistons lead until late, but Cleveland did what it had to do to survive.
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview, Analysis
The Pistons have adapted well as the series has progressed. They played more at-level in the pick-and-roll than ever in Game 6, forcing Donovan Mitchell to give the ball up and relying heavily on their weak-side rotations.
They started this process in Game 5 but weren’t fully adjusted to it yet; however, by Game 6, they looked truly comfortable guarding the Cavs for the first time in this series.
Ultimately, Game 7s are most often about who makes shots. For all of Detroit’s offensive woes, they’ve shot 37% from three-point range at home in the playoffs, while the Cavs have shot just 30% on the road.
Furthermore, the Pistons have held a 44% eFG% on pull-up jumpers in this series, compared to just 39% for the Cavs. If you’re curious why that matters, pull-up jumper eFG% has had an 82% correlation to playoff win rates this postseason, compared to just a 60% correlation for catch-and-shoot jumpers.
The Cavaliers may create fundamentally better shots, but the story of these playoffs has not been about that. Instead, it’s been about winning the margins, attacking inside with physicality, and hitting pull-up jumpers. Surprisingly, the Pistons are actually better at that so far.
While I can’t quite get to a place where I want to place a bet on either side, I lean strongly toward the Pistons in Game 7 tonight.
Cavaliers vs Pistons Picks, Betting Analysis
First Quarter Under 50.5 Points (-105)
The numbers supporting the Under have been a lot more stable, but even then, the first-quarter data has been outrageously good.
Since 2003: The first-quarter Under in Game 7s is 26-9-1. When the total has moved down two points or more from the Game 6 total, that first-quarter Under hits at a 22-7-1 (76%) clip.
Since 2020: The first-quarter Under in Game 7s after the first round is 7-3-1. When the total has shifted down by two points or more from the Game 6 line, the first-quarter Under tracks at 12-5-1 (70%).
Game 7s are tight, and they are inherently ugly. Both sides have intense nerves, and the crowd has nerves. At this point, both teams are thoroughly tired of playing one another; they know each other’s patterns, habits, and movements inside and out.
I’ll back the outrageously good trends here and play the first-quarter Under. If you’re curious, full-game Unders are actually a dead-even 9-10 since 2020. The macro-trend has held beautifully in the opening frames, but it simply hasn't translated to the full-game environment.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Excluding his Game 5 absence, Robinson's three-point production in this series has been exceptional: 5, 5, 4, 1, and 4.
He has been automatic from deep and will continue to get plenty of open looks with the Cavs playing two defenders at the level of the screen to force the ball out of Cade Cunningham's hands.
Paul Reed Over 12.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
Even if he comes back down to earth a little bit tonight, Reed's high rebounding rate should easily help carry us over this total.
He has successfully cleared this line in three straight games, and it is clear that head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has uncovered something in these bench lineups that is allowing Reed to be highly effective.
Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 Assists (-105)
Mitchell has only gone over this line once in the six games played this series, and just three times in the playoffs overall.
The structural shift by the Cavs is the real driver here: they have deliberately moved him off-ball to let James Harden initiate the offense, effectively turning Mitchell into the tip of the spear rather than the engine of the system. When he does attack downhill and hits the paint, the passing windows just aren't there.
Furthermore, the Pistons are intentionally forcing him to get rid of the ball by passing out to safety valve players who are far more likely to reset and pass it again than actually step up and shoot.
Dennis Schroder Under 7.5 Points & Rebounds (-135)
Schroder's minutes have noticeably dropped in this series, and Bickerstaff turned to Marcus Sasser in Game 6 to provide a much-needed ball-handling and scoring boost in the backcourt.
Ultimately, I don’t think this is the right series for Schroder, who has consistently lost his minutes on the floor.
Matt Moore's Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 7 Best Bets
- First Quarter Under 50.5 Points (-105)
- Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
- Paul Reed Over 12.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
- Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 Assists (-105)
- Dennis Schroder Under 7.5 Points & Rebounds (-135)
