After a 25-year wait to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Knicks will now make their second-straight appearance as they hope to return to the NBA Finals since their last visit in the 1998-99 season. For the Cavaliers, their last trip to the conference finals was in 2018, which was also LeBron James's final season in Cleveland.
Fresh off a Game 7 victory on the road against the top-seeded Pistons, the Cavaliers find themselves in a similar role as underdogs when they visit the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks for Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 1
- 3-Point Leader: Max Strus (+650)
- Rebounds Leader: Jarrett Allen (+730)
Cavaliers vs Knicks 3-Point Leader: Max Strus
Game 1 could have a few surprises similar to what we saw in the series opener between the Spurs and Thunder. Our pick of Julian Champagnie to finish with the most 3-pointers was only bested by OKC's Alex Caruso, who went off, sinking eight of his 14 3-point attempts.
Caruso's 31-point performance came out of nowhere for a player who averaged 6.2 during the regular season while shooting just 29.3% from the perimeter.
So what does all this have to do with tonight's game? Well, I'm glad you asked.
The Cavs have a player, Max Strus, who didn't make his season debut until Mar. 15 due to a severe foot injury (Jones fracture). Since his return, Strus is averaging around 25 minutes and has even started in eight of the 22 games he featured in.
It's worth noting that while the Knicks will have a scouting report on him, he didn't appear in any of their three meetings.
Strus shot 40% from distance during the regular season and sank four 3-pointers in the series openers against the Raptors and Pistons.
I expect both teams to key in on the opposition's star players, making it a bit easier for someone like Strus to fly under the radar. My model has Strus as the most reliable perimeter shooter in this field, and if we get enough volume, he's a legitimate threat to finish with the most 3-pointers at +650.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Max Strus (+650)
Cavaliers vs Knicks Rebounds Leader: Jarrett Allen
New York's Karl-Anthony Towns is the clear rebounding favorite, given his +111 odds. He has a blended average of 11.9 rebounds in my model and a standard deviation (σ) of 4.0, which is the widest of any challenger in this field.
However, his odds are simply not long enough to warrant a punt.
Instead, the player that offers the most value is Cleveland's Jarrett Allen at +730. Allen's odds are significantly better than New York's Josh Hart (+443) despite both players having the same win shares (13.1%) in my simulations.
Allen's σ of 3.5 is also the second-highest behind Towns, giving us a decent amount of upside when it comes to picking a rebounding leader.
The potential is clearly there for a player who posted 15 and 19 rebounds in two of his games against the Raptors.
Hopefully, Allen can shake up this market a bit and allow us to come back to Towns at a better price later in the series.
Pick: Rebounds Leader: Jarrett Allen (+730)
