NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Pascal Siakam and Cam Reddish Highlight Top Plays (March 6)
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Knicks forward Cam Reddish
This Sunday features an eight-game late slate of NBA games. We already have some news which I took advantage of with one of the three props I have listed below. Make sure to stay up to date with all of the injury news as Sundays are always a day filled with player inactives. Today is a great day to be great!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Pascal Siakam, Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
|Cavaliers vs. Raptors||Cavaliers -4|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
The Toronto Raptors seem to add more and more players to their injury list every single game. Not only are OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet out tonight, but so is backup point guard Malachi Flynn. The Raptors are just 1-3 in their last four games without Anunoby and VanVleet, and tonight won’t get any easier.
The Raptors are four-point road underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers as this game total is the lowest on the slate at 210.5 points. The Cavaliers present a tough matchup as they rank fourth in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-best 103.3 points per game. Their interior defense is also extremely good.
Picking a player prop from the Raptors is always beneficial because of the minutes they play. If Pascal Siakam can avoid foul trouble, he should play north of 40 minutes once again tonight. He is second to VanVleet in most minutes player per game this season. Playing so many minutes, Siakam will have plenty of opportunities to get over this points, rebounds, and assists prop tonight.
Using our On/Off Tool on FantasyLabs, Siakam averages a team-high 29.4% Usage Rate with VanVleet and Anunoby off the floor this season. Over the last two games, Siakam has averaged 31 points, 9.5 rebounds and two assists per game. He has played 40 and 43 minutes during those two games as well.
Our model has Siakam projected for 37.3 points, rebounds, and assists tonight. This matchup is tough, but Siakam has a great opportunity to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways as the leader of the Raptors. He is averaging a career-high in rebounds and assists this season. I would bet this up to 34.5.
Jaxson Hayes, Over 10.5 Points (-125)
|Nuggets vs. Pelicans||Nuggets -4|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Since the All-Star Break, the New Orleans Pelicans have won four straight games and have climbed to the 10th seed in the Western Conference. They look to make it five straight on the road against the Nuggets tonight.
The Pelicans are four-point road underdogs, but this total is quite high at 229 points. The increased playing time for Jaxson Hayes has obviously been a very good move for the Pelicans. Playing Hayes alongside Jonas Valanciunas has also limited his foul trouble. In two of his last three games, Hayes didn’t even record a foul. Valanciunas will be the one defending Nikola Jokic, which helps.
Not only is playing against Jokic a tough task, but the Nuggets also rank just outside the top 10 in both Defensive Rating and points allowed per game. However, they have given up more points at home this season compared to on the road. The Pelicans should be able to keep this game competitive, and Hayes should have plenty of opportunities to get over this prop line.
Hayes as a starter this season has averaged 13 points and 7.2 rebounds per game in nine total games. He has had 11 or more points in six of those nine games. His rebounding upside has me a little worried in this matchup as the Nuggets rank sixth in Rebounding Percentage this season. However, the Nuggets allow the eighth most points in the paint, which is where Hayes lives.
Hayes is projected to score 15.1 points in our model tonight, giving this line a good value. He has averaged 17.5 points per game in his two games against the Nuggets this season. I would take this prop up to 11.5 points.
Cam Reddish, Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
|Clippers vs. Knicks||Clippers -5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | ESPN|
The New York Knicks are a disaster right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games as they are five-point road underdogs against the LA Clippers tonight.
The Knicks will be without Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker for likely the rest of the season as Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin are also out tonight. That “should” open the door for more minutes for Cam Reddish. With head coach Tom Thibodeau you truly never know, but Reddish certainly deserves it.
Reddish has had over 8.5 points and rebounds in each of his last three games, despite only playing 18 minutes per game. During that time he has shot 52.9% from the field and has a 17.2% Usage Rate per game. He may not start, but the minutes and usage should increase tonight and moving forward.
The Clippers rank seventh in Defensive Rating, allowing 107.4 points per game. However, the reason for adding Reddish’s rebounds is because the Clippers rank 24th in Rebounding Percentage this season. Reddish has had eight combined rebounds in his last three games. He may get there on points alone, but the rebounding upside that this matchup allows will also help.
Our model has Reddish projected for 15 points plus rebounds tonight, which is nearly double the line of 8.5 on BetMGM. Shop around for the best value, but I would take this now in case we get news of the off chance that Reddish enters the starting lineup. I would be comfortable taking this prop at 9.5 tonight.
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