NBA Odds & Pick for Mavericks vs. Nuggets: Sharps, Systems Suggesting Over/Under Value (Thursday, Jan. 7)
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic
NBA Odds: Mavericks vs. Nuggets
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
A somewhat lacking NBA slate (in quantity) makes up for it in quality, with a few intriguing Thursday night matchups, including a Mavericks vs. Nuggets matchup in the late window.
And while such a game won’t have any trouble attracting casual bettors, it’s necessarily going to draw the attention of sharps … unless they’re able to find some betting value. And according to our PRO Report, they have.
Note: Odds, data as of 12 p.m. ET.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Mavericks vs. Nuggets
Thanks to some big bets from sharps, this total has come down three points from its opener. And one of our PRO Systems suggests that action has led to profit in the past.
From an opening number of 226 at many shops, the over/under is down to 223 despite most bettors (73% as of writing) riding the over. In itself, that should tell you something about which side more likely consists of sharp bettors.
Action Labs confirms that indication, as three Bet Signals — indicators of market-wide movement caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on the under at lines ranging from 226 to 224.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Further evidencing the under as the sharp side, its 27% backing has generated 61% of the actual money hitting this spread.
And while that’s clearly a majority, it’s probably not enough to justify three points of movement simply as a financial liability. It is, however, a significantly higher percentage than that of the under’s betting tickets, which means the under is drawing much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Under
On top of the indication of sharp action, this under also fits one of our PRO Betting Systems.
Given the Nuggets’ rate of overs to start the season, history suggests that bettors might be inflating this number. In fact, our “Unders On Good Home Over Team” PRO System has returned a 57% win rate on a sample of more than 900 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under