NBA PRO Report & Pick: How Sharps are Betting Hornets vs. Pelicans Spread (Friday, Jan. 8)
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Gordon Hayward
- The Pelicans are big favorites on national TV at home against the Hornets tonight, and they're getting a lot of action from the betting world.
- Danny Donahue breaks down how the line has moved as money has come in on New Orleans.
NBA Odds: Hornets vs. Pelicans
|PRO Projection||NOP -7|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Under the national-television spotlight, the Pelicans will host the Hornets tonight as somewhat sizable favorites (-7) in the betting market. And that sizable spread has led to a slight majority of bets landing on the underdog.
As of writing, the 53% to 47% edge in the betting population belongs to Charlotte, but our PRO Report suggests that sharps aren’t seeing the game the same way as the majority. And a PRO System match suggests history isn’t, either.
Let’s take a look.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Hornets vs. Pelicans
Sharps and big bettors — who are likely one and the same — have landed on the home favorite with a historically profitable system backing up their action.
It may not be obvious by the opening and current lines, but sharp action has actually increased this spread. The lack of clarity comes from the fact that pros didn’t make their move until after the initial line fell to -6.
Since then, Action Labs has triggered three Bet Signals on the Pelicans, revealing three separate instances of market-moving sharp action, and helping to explain the reversal of direction.
Sharp Action edge: Pelicans
Further evidencing the Pels as the sharp side, their 47% backing has generated 71% of the money landing on tonight’s spread. That means bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are laying the points rather than taking them.
Big Money edge: Pelicans
Historically speaking, the specific display of sharp action hitting New Orleans tonight has been indicative of profit. In fact, the substantial discrepancy between the percentage of bets and dollars the Pels have attracted has made them a match for our “NBA Tickets vs. Money” PRO System.
It’s returned a 55% win rate on a sample of more than 600 NBA games since 2015 (since we began collecting money percentage data).
PRO Systems edge: Pelicans