NBA Pick Tonight: Expert Jaylen Brown Bet for Pacers vs Celtics (Game 2)

I have one NBA pick tonight for Game 2 of Pacers vs Celtics that's fading Jaylen Brown's assist output. For more Game 2 bets, click here.

NBA Pick Tonight: Expert Jaylen Brown Bet for Pacers vs Celtics (Game 2)

Brown recorded five assists on 33 passes made in Game 1 but is still averaging 1.8 assists on 27.2 passes made in 35.0 minutes per game across six total games against the Pacers this season. That modest production in the assist department is not surprising, as the Pacers allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season at 24.6. In the postseason, that number has dipped to 22.9. Brown’s 11 assists in 210 minutes against Indiana equates to a rate of just 0.052 per minute. At that rate, he would need to play over 76 minutes to reach four assists.

Game 2 also projects as a pace-down spot relative to Game 1, which was played at a pace of 100.2 possessions per 48 minutes. The Pacers typically play fast, but not that fast, with their average pace factor in the postseason clocking in at 93.7.

After the Celtics nearly dropped Game 1 by allowing the Pacers to dictate tempo en route to shooting 53.5% from the field, you can bet they want to slow the game down to their glacial postseason pace of 91.5.

Brown has gone over 3.5 assists in just two of his 11 postseason games but since the two overs happened to occur in his last two games, his assist prop has experienced an artificial inflation to 3.5 after closing at 2.5 in each of his first 10 postseason games. I project Brown to go under 3.5 assists roughly two-thirds of the time.

Bet to: -195