The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 9-game slate this Friday, and I've locked in a total of six picks spanning three of tonight's contests — including bets for Celtics vs. Bucks, Magic vs. Mavericks, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Friday, April 3.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Friday, April 3
  |   |   |
Celtics vs. Bucks Spread & Total Predictions
Bucks +17
Milwaukee is 2-2 ATS as more than a 15-point underdog. Boston is 3-3 ATS as a more than 12.5-point favorite. This is largely a coin flip situation, but there are some signs of value pointing toward Milwaukee.
The market rating for this game with a standard 2.5-point homecourt advantage is only 14.9 per Inpredictable.com; I make it 13.9.
I do have a power rating model with homecourt adjustments that puts this at 19, but that’s influenced by how bad the Bucks were against the market when fully healthy, which they no longer are.
The big key here is the pace. The Bucks are 24th in pace, the Celtics 30th. The low total on this game reflects that reality. I don’t think this number is far off, but just a touch.
I’m not enthusiastic about this side, but I do think there’s value on Milwaukee with a line at home this long.
Over 216.5
The Celtics’ defense is legit, but the Bucks’ is not, and Milwaukee can shoot.
I like the Bucks on the spread — so predictably, I think they will score more than expected. I have them projected for 107 points, considerably more than their team total, and I project Boston slightly over as well.
Boston’s defense is very good, but Milwaukee is an excellent shooting team. We have seen this line move a point in the over’s direction since open, and it seems like a good hedge against the possibility of the Celtics hanging a huge number on a bad defense.
I am a bit concerned that the under has been good both when the Bucks have faced good eFG% defenses (the under is 15-10 against top 10 eFG% defenses) and when Boston has faced top-10 eFG% offenses (the under is 17-8) — but, I just think this line is too low.
Picks: Bucks +17 (-110), Over 216.5 (-115)
| | |
Jazz vs. Rockets Spread & Total Picks
Jazz +17.5
Utah has actually been hanging around in these games.
The Jazz are surprisingly decent ATS despite their tanking exploits, and they are 6-3 ATS when more than 15-point underdogs this season (the fact that they have been more than 15-point 'dogs nine times this season makes me very sad).
Houston has been good as a huge favorite, with a record of 3-1 when favored by more than 15-point favorite this season — but the Rockets are also 17-29 ATS after a win and 6-10 after a win where they failed to cover (Tuesday vs. Bucks).
I expected all these tanking teams to get obliterated ATS given all the blowouts — but since March 1, the Jazz are 9-8 ATS, and even the Wizards and Mavericks are 7-10 ATS.
The Jazz also shoot a high volume of three-pointers, albeit not well — and any team that has a match advantage can match up with the Rockets.
If you want to play it safe, you can take the first half spread and avoid what will be some shenanigans by the Jazz in the fourth quarter — but only if the outcome of the game is in question.
The Rockets are feeling better about themselves after some wins, which means this is the perfect time to fade them as monster favorites.
Under 233.5
The Rockets don’t take three-pointers, ever, and defend at a very high level. The Jazz don’t defend at all, but they also can’t shoot.
Utah is 16th in over-rate on the road, while the Rockets are the 3rd-best under team at home.
This could wind up being an ugly, tight game — and even if the Jazz let go of the rope, it’s more likely Houston continues to score a bunch of points from inside the arc, keeping the number low.
Pick: Jazz +17.5 (-110), Under 233.5 (-110)
| | |
Magic vs. Mavericks Spread & Total Bets
Mavericks +6.5
We aren’t seriously giving the Magic this kind of credit, right?
Are the Magic good? Well, no. They are actually quite bad with a -0.1 point differential, and they just got annihilated by the Hawks (albeit on a back-to-back).
Okay, but are they good against the spread? Also, no. The Magic are 34-42 ATS this season and 6-9 ATS as road favorites.
Alright, sure, but are they projected to cover this spread? Not by DunksAndThrees.com, which makes the projected differential four points — and not by my power rating, which makes this 4.24.
Well, at least the Mavericks are terrible offensively, ranked 29th in the league. Surely the Orlando Magic, with their great defense the past few years, are good against such teams. Oh, what’s that? The Magic are 9-13 ATS against bottom-10 offenses this season? You don’t say.
The other thing is that the Mavericks are actually feisty. Dallas isn't really tanking, not in the way, say, Utah and Washington are.
The Mavericks are playing their guys for the most part and have continued to hang around in games. They are 14-12 ATS as home 'dogs this season, and 6-4 against Eastern Conference teams in that spot.
Dallas has enough athletes and shooters to give the Magic trouble, and Orlando is still trying to get itself acclimated to having Franz Wagner back.
You don’t want to back the tanking teams this season, but Dallas is the exception. I'll take them to cover the spread here and might also sprinkle the moneyline.
Under 237.5
This is a bonkers number for two teams that still try on defense.
The under is 28-21 in Mavericks games with a total above 230.
Dallas is an up-tempo team, but I still only project them to score 85 points in the halfcourt, leaving too wide of a swath for them to cover with transition.
Orlando can put up points; I have them projected at 116 tonight — but even if Dallas covers the spread, I still only project this total at 220. So, I like the under.
Pick: Mavericks +6.5 (-110), Under 237.5 (-110)
| | |
