NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Wendell Carter Jr., Nikola Jokic (November 3)

NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Wendell Carter Jr., Nikola Jokic (November 3) article feature image

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets, Jusuf Nurkic #27 of the Portland Trail Blazers.

  • There are only two NBA games on the Thursday night slate, but that doesn't mean there isn't value on the board.
  • Munaf Manji has found value in a pair of player props and explains his reasoning below.
  • Continue reading for his best bets and analysis.

Thursday night features two games on the NBA schedule. The Golden State Warriors will head to Florida to take the Orlando Magic and a Northwest Division matchup takes place in Oklahoma City as the Nuggets visit the Thunder.

We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Wendell Carter Jr., Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)

Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando MagicWarriors -9
Time | TV8:00 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best BookDraftKings

Wendell Carter Jr. comes into this matchup averaging 9.5 rebounds per game. However, I believe Carter Jr. has a favorable matchup against the Warriors inside the paint. First, the Warriors are allowing opposing centers 18.4 rebounds per game, which ranks third worst in the league, according to Hashtag Basketball. Furthermore, the Warriors rank 19th in the league in opponent rebounding.

Additionally, Carter Jr. grabbed double-digit rebounds against the Celtics, Pistons and Knicks — teams that also allow the most rebounds to opposing centers. I believe the Warriors lack the size and length inside the paint to keep players like Paolo Banchero and, more importantly, Carter Jr. off the boards.

Nikola Jokic, Over 12.5 Rebounds (-130)

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City ThunderNuggets -6
Time | TV8:00 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best BookDraftKings

Nikola Jokic, to no one’s surprise, is off a great start this season, especially rebounding the basketball. Despite Jokic’s numbers being slightly down — more so because of the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — he is still dominating on the boards.

Jokic is averaging 11.1 rebounds per game, but that number goes through the roof when he plays the Oklahoma City Thunder because of their lack of size inside. In fact, the Nuggets faced the Thunder earlier this season and Jokic recorded a triple-double with 16 rebounds.

Dating back to last season, in five games against the Thunder, Jokic is averaging 13.8 rebounds per game, including three games where he grabbed 16 or more rebounds. Additionally, the Thunder are allowing opposing centers to grab 18.8 rebounds per game this season. I like Jokic to continue his domination on the boards against the Thunder on Thursday night.

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Sean Treppedi
Jul 17, 2024 UTC