NBA Player Props: 2 Picks for Sunday, Including Karl-Anthony Towns (January 30)
Credit: Mitchell Leff, Getty. Karl-Anthony Towns drives to the hoop against the 76ers.
- Tyler Schmidt uses the Action Labs Player Prop tool to break down his favorite props for Sunday's NBA slate.
- He has identified two props with value, including Karl-Anthony Towns' rebounding total.
- Read on for his analysis and prop picks below.
Today is obviously Championship Sunday for the NFL, but there are some props that we can take advantage of in the NBA streets tonight. This article will provide two plus-juice props for the five-game NBA night slate. Let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tre Jones, Under 6.5 Assists (+115)
|Suns vs. Spurs||Suns -13.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The San Antonio Spurs have an island road game against the best team in the league, the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs are massive underdogs as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries while the Suns are getting healthier tonight.
The Spurs will be without Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl. That will pave the way for Tre Jones to enter the starting lineup. Jones has started two games this season and has averaged 10.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Getting to seven assists is a tall task. In the 77 games that Jones has played in his career, he has only had seven or more assists twice.
The Suns present a very difficult matchup as they rank second in the league in Defensive Rating. This game environment should be electric as both the Suns and Spurs rank in the top seven in Pace this season. The total has come down to 227.5 points, which is still quite high, especially in this massive spread.
The Spurs are still only implied to score 107 points. The Suns rank third in both fewest assists allowed with 22.2 per game and in field goal percentage allowed with 43.8%. They also have a chance to be very healthy tonight as Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee are all listed as questionable. They have all been out for a long period of time recently.
I realize Murray and White are out, and Jones will likely play as many minutes as he can handle, but this matchup is difficult, and this spread is alarming. Seeing that as a juiced prop gives me a little pause, but our model has Jones only projected for 5.8 assists tonight, which makes a lot of sense to me in this spot.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
|Timberwolves vs. Jazz||Timberwolves -2.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Timberwolves come into this game after losing back-to-back games against the top two teams in the Western Conference after the Warriors and Suns handled the Timberwolves with relative ease. It doesn’t get much better for the Timberwolves as they now host the Jazz tonight but are slightly favored.
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are out tonight due to injury. This is massive for Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves. In eight games without Gobert this season, the Jazz Defensive Rating has dropped significantly from 108.5 to 121.3 per game — a massive dip in their defense.
The Timberwolves have an injury situation of their own as D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable tonight as he missed last game. In six games without Russell this season, Towns has had a slight increase in his rebounding numbers but also has had a decrease in both his scoring and field goal percentage. Russell is a key piece for the Timberwolves as they have a record of 2-9 without him.
Towns has recorded 10 or more rebounds in four of his last seven games. During that span, he has averaged 10.1 rebounds per game, and that is including a game in which he only had five rebounds. Towns isn’t known as a great rebounding center, but without Gobert, he should absolutely feast in the paint.
Our model has Towns projected to grab 10.6 rebounds tonight, which provides a lot of value on this prop that is at even-money. Shop around for the best value, but right now that is at DraftKings. This prop may drop to 8.5 rebounds, in which case I would certainly hammer the over. However, I like the juice tonight!