Friday NBA Player Props: 3 Bets, Including Kevin Durant & Cameron Payne
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Durant.
Tonight features a massive 12-game NBA slate that is filled with star power. Several of those stars are listed as questionable so make sure to stay up to date on the news and take advantage of any props not updating in time.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Spencer Dinwiddie, Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
|76ers vs. Mavericks||76ers -3.5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
One of the best teams since the All-Star Break has been the Dallas Mavericks. A big reason why is the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie, who has emerged as a great Robin to the Batman that is Luka Doncic. They work very well together.
The Mavericks are 8-2 since the All-Star Break and have moved into a tie for the fourth seed in the Western Conference. They are slight underdogs on the road tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers who have also been hot as of late, winning eight of their last 11 games.
Over the last 10 games, Dinwiddie has averaged 20.3 points, 4.6 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game. He has hit over 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists in nine of those 10 games. The reason for not going with over 15.5 points was due to the upside that Dinwiddie can have with his peripherals. During that 10-game stretch, he had four games where he had seven or more assists.
Our model has Dinwiddie projected for 27.4 points, rebounds, and assists tonight. The matchup against the 76ers is tough as they rank ninth in defensive rating this season, allowing 106.9 points per game. This game also has an extremely low total of 217 points as both the Mavericks and 76ers rank slowest and second-slowest in pace. This will be played at a snail speed.
Despite those concerns, Dinwiddie provides too much value at this prop line that he has hit 90% of the time in his last 10 games. He has been a great weapon for the Mavericks and that should continue against the 76ers tonight. I would take this line up to 24.5 points, assists, and rebounds in this matchup.
Kevin Durant, Over 6.5 Assists (-120)
|Nets vs. Trail Blazers||Nets -14.5|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Brooklyn Nets are climbing in the Eastern Conference as they have won four of their last five games. They have a great chance to make that stat even better tonight as the Nets have a home matchup against the Trail Blazers.
Since they are at home, Kyrie Irving will not be available so this will turn into the Kevin Durant show once again. With Irving out of the lineup, opposing teams have been doubling Durant and getting the ball out of his hands immediately in the half court and forcing the Nets role players to beat them. Smart strategy.
That has led to Durant having great assist numbers. He has averaged eight assists per game in his last six games and has recorded seven or more in each game. On the season, Durant is averaging a career-high six assists per game.
Even though Irving is out, Seth Curry will likely return tonight after missing three-straight games. Having Curry back will not only prevent the Trail Blazers from doubling Durant as much, but will certainly increase Durant's assist numbers since Curry is a knock-down 3-point shooter.
The matchup against the Trail Blazers is as good as it gets. They have lost eight of their last nine games since returning from the All-Star break. During that nine-game stretch they have allowed an absurd 125.1 points per game.
The Nets are heavy favorites and even if Durant doesn't get there from a scoring perspective, he will have ample opportunities to dish out assists. I would consider taking this line up to 7.5 assists, but not any higher.
Cameron Payne, Under 15.5 Points (-120)
|Suns vs. Bulls||Suns -5.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
These two teams have been going in the exact opposite direction lately as the Phoenix Suns have won seven of their last nine games and lead the Western Conference by a comfortable margin. The Chicago Bulls have lost seven of their last nine games and are sliding down the Eastern Conference standings.
Chris Paul has been out for the last 10 games and Cameron Payne has filled in perfectly. In the nine games that Payne has played without Paul this season, he is averaging 14.1 points and 9.8 assists per game. His assist numbers have shot up dramatically, but the scoring output is still lacking for this prop line.
A big reason why is Devin Booker has increased his production without Paul in the lineup as well. The Suns are still incredibly deep. Cameron Johnson is out tonight while Jae Crowder is questionable. I would feel much better if Crowder were able to play this game for this Payne prop.
Payne has scored 14 or fewer points in three-straight games. During that time he has averaged 9.7 points while only attempting 8.7 field goal attempts per game. He can certainly get hot, especially from the perimeter, but this prop line is simply too high for the usage that Payne has shown recently.
This is another prop where I would definitely consider taking this line to 14.5 points or even an alternative prop under 10.5 points if you wanted to get very aggressive. Make sure Crowder is in before being aggressive in this spot.