NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Steph Curry, Kyle Kuzma Headline Saturday Bets (March 12)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Kuzma
- It's a star-studded night in the NBA and our prop picks are filled with stars, as well.
- Karl-Anthony Towns and Steph Curry have value in their lines, while Washington's Kyle Kuzma is a premium pick as well.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of those three picks from tonight in the NBA.
This seven-game slate features a plethora of injury news already. More will be coming in throughout the day, but there are so many names to monitor on the injury report.
The props I targeted all should be good to go as these three props really stood out among the rest. Two overs and one under. Lets get it!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns, Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
|Heat vs. Timberwolves||Heat -3|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | League Pass|
After a six-game winning streak, the Timberwolves threw up a dud against the Magic on the road Friday night. They remain on the heels of the Nuggets and Mavericks as they are still in the seventh seed in the Western Conference.
Karl-Anthony Towns is a major reason for the Timberwolves’ success this season. He leads the team in points and rebounds. However, he is averaging a career-low 9.8 rebounds per game. It would be the only season in which Towns has failed to record an average of 10 or more rebounds per game.
Towns and the Timberwolves are in for a tough test against the Heat tonight. They are only three-point road underdogs, but the Heat are incredible against opposing centers. They lead the league in points allowed in the paint with only 40.6 per game. As a team they rank fifth in Defensive Rating, allowing 104.7 points per game and have been dominate on the glass this season as well.
In their only matchup this season, the Timberwolves won 113-101, but Towns only had 11 points and six rebounds as he shot 4-of-12 from the field and 1-of-5 from behind the arc. This is a brutal matchup for Towns, which is why the under is the landing spot. Bam Adebayo and PJ Tucker are great on defense.
The reason for adding the rebounds to this prop is because the 20.5 points prop seems too low even in this matchup. Towns has averaged 24.4 points per game this season and has gone over 21 or more points in six of his last nine games since the All-Star break. Combine them and let’s take the under.
Stephen Curry, Over 25.5 Points (-110)
|Warriors vs. Bucks||Bucks -2|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
The Warriors are getting back into a little bit of a groove lately as they have won back-to-back games. However, they still sit in third place in the Western Conference behind the Grizzlies. They are two-point underdogs in a battle with the Bucks tonight. This game has the highest total on the slate at 237.5 points. Expect a lot of offensive production from two of the best teams in the league.
It has been a poor offensive year for Stephen Curry as he is still shooting a career-low 43.3% from the field and 37.8% from behind the arc. This would be the only season that Curry has shot below 40% from downtown, but he is still leading the league with 4.5 made 3-pointers per game this season.
That is where Curry can take advantage of this Bucks defense. Curry has unlimited range, but should get several open looks tonight as the Bucks allow the most 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made per game. The 40.4 3-pointers attempted allowed is incredibly high. Watch out for the Splash Bros.
Curry is coming off of a 34-point night where he led the Warriors to victory over the Nuggets. This is certainly the matchup to keep the momentum going. The ceiling for Curry, especially from behind the arc, is extremely high. This primetime game should be exciting and Curry will show out like he does best.
Curry is projected for 30.4 points in our model tonight, which provides plenty of value at this number. If you want more Curry action, take his over 4.5 3-pointers made at +125. Curry has made five 3-pointers in two of his last five games.
Kyle Kuzma, Over 27.5 Points + Assists (-110)
|Wizards vs. Trail Blazers||Wizards -6|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | League Pass|
The Washington Wizards are still firmly in the playoff picture as they are only 2.5 games back of the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw a home matchup against what is now basically a G-League Trail Blazers team.
It is a little surprising the Wizards are only six-point road favorites as the Trail Blazers have looked awful since the All-Star break. They’ve lost each of their last six games by an average of 32.3 points per game. This matchup has the lowest total on the slate at 220.5 points, which isn’t inviting.
The Wizards will be playing without Kristaps Porzingis who is resting on the second leg of a back-to-back. He has been quite good for the Wizards since his arrival. However, without Porzingis the usage rate for Kuzma should ramp back up. It’s time for Kuzma to go back into hero mode and do it all tonight.
The Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season, allowing 113.4 points per game. They have been atrocious lately and will likely have no answer for stopping Kuzma tonight. The close spread is also encouraging for Kuzma’s over prop. He should have zero trouble against this awful defense tonight.
In the four games since the All-Star break in which Porzingis was not available, Kuzma averaged 28.3 points and 6.5 assists per game. He may get this prop on points alone, but the assist upside Kuzma has is helpful as well. I would take this prop up to 29.5 points + assists tonight as this matchup is way too good.