NBA Player Props & Picks: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Stephen Curry Highlight Top Bets (December 13)
Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets.
- Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, we have identified three picks for Monday night.
- We'll start with Joel Embiid and Cody Martin before wrapping up with Nikola Jokic.
- Check out Tyler Schmidt's picks and breakdowns below.
Happy Monday everyone!
I love this slate of props today, so much so I’ve added a few bonus bets at the bottom. (Hint: we’re betting that guy who is looking to break that all-time record; maybe you’ve heard about it.)
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
This is going to be a great NBA slate, so let’s dive right in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid, Over 26.5 Points (-102)
|Grizzlies vs. 76ers||76ers -3.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The 76ers are starting to get back to their winning ways. Since Joel Embiid has returned from the Covid protocols, the 76ers have won five of their last eight games. They even took down the best team in the league the Golden State Warriors in their last home game. The Sixers now welcome in the Grizzlies who are cooking right now winning seven of their past eight.
Despite the hot streak, the Grizzlies are decimated with injuries to their frontcourt right now. Brandon Clarke has already been ruled out of this game tonight, while Steven Adams is doubtful and Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable. They will likely be starting Xavier Tillman at center tonight and Embiid has to be licking his chops.
Embiid continues to lead the 76ers by a wide margin in usage rate averaging 33% per game. However, one of the best traits of Embiid is getting his opponents into foul trouble. He should have no trouble doing so tonight against this undersized and inexperienced Grizzlies frontcourt. Those fouls also allow Embiid to get to the charity stripe for free points. He has double digit free throw attempts in six of his last eight games and is shooting 80%.
Since returning, Embiid has come back on an absolute tear. During that time over eight games, Embiid is averaging 27.4 points per game and 12.3 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 35.1 minutes per game over that stretch and has yet to play a game where he has not played 30 or more minutes. It is safe to say that he is finally fully healthy and playing like the beast that he is.
There are a few books offering this Embiid points prop at 25.5 points. You can certainly take that, I just was looking for the best value possible and that was bringing this prop up to 26.5 points like it is on FanDuel where we can get close to even-money. At 25.5 or 26.5 points, I like this prop either way tonight.
Cody Martin, Under 21.5 PTS + REB + AST (-105)
|Mavericks vs. Hornets||Mavericks -2.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Hornets are slowly but surely getting getting players back from Covid protocols. One of those players is Terry Rozier, whose return will likely move Cody Martin back to the bench. Even if he starts, he won’t be playing as much as he was before.
Rozier is second on the Hornets in Usage Rate this season with 22.7%, averaging 15.2 field goal attempts per game (which ranks third on the team) and 32.9 minutes per game (which is fourth). With such a highly involved player back in the lineup, Martin’s production will certainly go down.
We were seeing absurd numbers for these Hornets players. Martin played 42 minutes or more in his last three games, which is insane. The Hornets also will likely be getting PJ Washington back from injury. He is listed as probable. If he comes back that could be a trickle down effect on to Martin’s playing time.
Of course when you’re playing that many minutes your numbers are going to look fantastic. Martin is averaging 16 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game, and four assists per game. The peripherals may go up playing alongside Rozier, but we have Martin projected for only 7.7 points tonight which I feel is very accurate.
We also have Martin projected for 15.1 points, rebounds, and assists tonight, which is well below the prop of 21.5. I love the value we are getting on this prop as well. I would not mind betting this number down to 20.5. There are many Martin under props that I like tonight, but this one stood out the most.
Nikola Jokic, Over 8.5 Assists (+105)
|Nuggets vs. Wizards||Nuggets -4.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Nuggets’ schedule looks like a Christmas tree right now as they have traded wins and losses in each of their last eight games. After a brutally long seven-game road trip, they return home where they have a 7-4 record and welcome in the Wizards who are reeling as of late.
There is simply no one better in the league than Nikola Jokic who is playing on a different level lately. Over the past four games Jokic is averaging 28.3 points per game, 13.3 rebounds per game, and 11 assists per game. He has a triple-double in three of his past four games while averaging 35.5 minutes per game.
The Wizards have lost four out of their last five games with their only victory coming on a go-ahead 3-pointer in overtime against the 4-22 Detroit Pistons. The Wizards are allowing the fifth-most points in the paint this season at 48.4 per game. This tight spread implies we’ll be getting around 35 minutes of Jokic in this game.
As you can tell I love Jokic in this spot in general tonight, but the most valued prop I could find is on his assists at DraftKings over 8.5 tonight. As I mentioned above he is averaging 11 assists per game in his last four games. The Nuggets are still playing without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., but they are also healthy as they can be right now.
The Nuggets are shooting 46.4% from the field as a team this season, which is the eighth-best in the league. Jokic should be heavily featured in a fantastic matchup against the Wizards, which should draw defenders and leave teammates open to hit shots.
I love the juice we are getting on this prop right now, and I would not take it if it got over 9.5 assists. If it were to get to 7.5 I would absolutely hammer the over.
Bonus Prop Bets
- Gabe Vincent, Under 19.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115): Vincent may start again for Jimmy Butler, but this matchup against the Cavaliers is brutal. The Cavaliers rank third in Defensive Rating this season allowing only 102.2 points per game which is the second best mark in the league.
- Stephen Curry, Over 6.5 3-Pointers (+125): Curry has a chance to break history tonight in the same arena Reggie Miller poured in an absurd number of 3-pointers. Hard to not bet Curry with this much juice on him.
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