The NBA postseason action continues with Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday, May 18. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, is targeting an assist prop in tonight's matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his NBA player prop bet for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1.
NBA Player Prop Bet for Monday, May 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop Bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 Assists (+105)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 6.3 assists per game in the 4-game sweep against the Lakers, which is right around where my expected assists model had him based on his pass mix.
As always with SGA, he only averages around 1.1 passes per minute, which is very low for someone who dominates the ball as much as he does. But that makes sense for a guy scoring 30+ per game since he’s usually looking to score himself first.
The interesting part is, when he does pass, around 33% of his passes turn into potential assists, the 3rd-highest rate among qualified players. However, his teammates’ expected make rate on those passes is only around 51% because he’s typically generating tougher looks and a lot of 3-point attempts.
The Lakers were allowing him to generate much cleaner looks inside, though, and his teammates converted 56% of his potential assists in that series. I don’t expect that type of efficiency to hold against the Spurs.
With his current pass mix, I have him closer to 5.8 expected assists in this matchup. It’s also worth noting he averaged just 5.5 assists per game against San Antonio in the regular season (4 games).
Jalen Williams returning tonight quietly matters too. SGA averaged 24.9 assists per 100 possessions with Jalen off the court this season, but that dropped to just 20.4 with him on the floor.
I’m projecting SGA closer to 6.15 assists with around a 58% chance to stay under 6.5. Getting plus-money is a nice bonus.
And as always with SGA assist unders, the sweat is actually pretty straightforward. Anytime he gets the ball, we want him shooting or drawing a foul. If he does pass it, we don’t want the next guy shooting. And if they do shoot, we want a miss, block, or foul.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 Assists (+105)
