Bucks vs. Nets NBA Player Prop & Pick: Fade Ben Simmons Against Stout Defenders (December 23)

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Bucks vs.

Nets

Ben Simmons, 22.5 PTS + REB + AST

Tonight, I’m looking to fade one of the most divisive players in the NBA, Ben Simmons, against the stout defense of the Milwaukee Bucks.

Simmons is averaging 20.8 Points + Rebounds + Assists in 22 games this season, staying under this line in seven games. He’s bounced in and out of the starting lineup, but regardless of his role, this line reads as too high for a player who relies on all three stat categories to produce.

The LSU product garners almost all of his scoring production in the paint – 77 of his 82 made baskets are within 10 feet of the basket. The Bucks allow the fewest made baskets per game within that range, due to the defensive prowess and length of their front court.

The Bucks also allow the second fewest assists per game (the recurring theme here is that this defense is very good). On the rebounding front, Simmons' chances should be limited, as he’ll be focused on his primary defensive assignment, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Against the Bucks, Kevin Durant typically looks to take over (averaging 46.3 PRA against Milwaukee in his tenure as a Net). Kyrie Irving also looms, as do a healthy complement of Nets role players.

Tonight, I have Simmons projected at 19 PRA, and would play this line down to under 21.5.

Pick: Simmons under 22.5 PTS + REB + AST (+100) — Play to 21.5 PRA